tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8240318064031929738.post4290846614696419497..comments2009-01-07T08:09:14.456-05:00Machttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14065990507428929501noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8240318064031929738.post-12411130872245385962009-01-07T08:09:00.000-05:002009-01-07T08:09:00.000-05:00Good thoughts all. <BR/><BR/>CW - I understand I am missing a move here, and I am completely aware that this move could be like the one I missed to the downside in October/November. Things got so oversold at that time that I kept saying I had to wait for a bounce to get short, but it never came. I think this is the same situation - I have to wait for a pullback to get long - but I don't think the odds of a continued move higher are as high. That's just my opinion. I believe we are still in a bear market. If I miss this move, that's OK too - I will survive and there will be other moves to trade. We'll see what happens over the next few days.Machttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14065990507428929501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8240318064031929738.post-55581362598046493732009-01-07T07:38:00.000-05:002009-01-07T07:38:00.000-05:00Great analysis Mac.Nergohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15356647963372211638noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8240318064031929738.post-77928585261602198902009-01-06T22:47:00.000-05:002009-01-06T22:47:00.000-05:00The overboughtness is probably nearing an inflection point.<BR/><BR/>According to The Hedge Fund Edge<BR/> By Mark Boucher, when the 5day avg of<BR/>up volume to down volume is over 77pct,<BR/>its signals a very bullish intermediate term. (You can find the relevant section on google books on page 138)<BR/><BR/>Using IBD's data for volume, I get 74pct up volume ratio for the past 5 days.<BR/><BR/>If tomorrow we get mkt avg volume with over 3 to 1 up vol, that would make it to about 77 pct.<BR/><BR/>Then again, the thanksgiving run-up top was also about 74pct just before the post-thanksgiving drop.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, great blog, I always respect your opinion.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8240318064031929738.post-90096115134284504452009-01-06T22:29:00.000-05:002009-01-06T22:29:00.000-05:00Fighting the trend....why?...Yep, shorts will work eventually but you are missing a nice run up in the market. There continues to be some nice set ups and they are trending to the upside.....There is always a time to be bearish and this is not the time....CWnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8240318064031929738.post-27739233805864895972009-01-06T19:24:00.000-05:002009-01-06T19:24:00.000-05:00I meant to say "a very overBOUGHT market" in that first sentence...if the error wasn't obvious.<BR/><BR/>I'm referring to short-term, of course, since intermediate term one could argue this is an oversold market.alysomjihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08857780525482160656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8240318064031929738.post-88115855892138465762009-01-06T18:47:00.000-05:002009-01-06T18:47:00.000-05:00I'm seeing the same things you are, CSW. A very oversold market. I think it is just tip toeing around a hole that's going one way: down. <BR/><BR/>Sure, it could go a bit higher, but I'd say 960 is its limit (if it hadn't already reached it today in the mid-940s). Way too risky to go long here, IMO.<BR/><BR/>Personally, I'm not even going to THINK about going long until we approach or come in the area of the 20-day SMA (currently 894).<BR/><BR/>I can see us going to around 850-880 pretty quickly in a fairly steep decline, in fact. And, if 850 is later broken...watch out.alysomjihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08857780525482160656noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8240318064031929738.post-81738178368021484022009-01-06T18:13:00.000-05:002009-01-06T18:13:00.000-05:00I do realize we are in a bear market rally, but we've also been in one for about 25% or so by now, so the question you have to ask yourself (or at least I am asking myself) is how far does this rally go? What is there to push this rally further? I am not necessarily expecting a total crash - I just think a pullback is long overdue based on my indicators.Machttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14065990507428929501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8240318064031929738.post-80475721021886823952009-01-06T17:46:00.000-05:002009-01-06T17:46:00.000-05:00Were I you, I'd accept the likelihood that we're in a bear rally. That means that we'll be overbought for some time to come, so that's not a good short entry signal for now. Eventually, probably near the end of this month, the bear will probably take over. If that happens, your shorts will really start paying off.<BR/><BR/>FWIW, your selection of short candidates is a bit too aggressive for me (though maybe your tight stops make up for it somewhat). <BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/><BR/>Terry SteichenAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com