Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Massive Market Summary of 2013 and Outlook for 2014

Hi traders.  The year has come to an end and what a year it was.  I made a video that looks back at the overall market action for 2013 and gives a prediction for what I expect to see in 2014. It's been a long while since we have had a decent sized correction and I think that is certainly a possibility early in the year. I also discuss the leading stocks going into the new year along with setups that are looking good at this point.

At the beginning of last year, I made a list of thirteen stocks that I thought looked promising for the year ahead, more for fun than anything else.   This is the way that list of thirteen performed in the past year.

For fun, I am doing the same thing this year, only it is a list of fourteen names for 2014.  I doubt they do as well simply because I think the market is going to have an almost impossible time duplicating the success it had this year as a whole and that will making trading much more difficult.   Here goes anyway.   This is a mix of sectors and stocks, some beaten down, some recent, and some which are current leaders.  My gut tells me that the big winners for the year ahead are going to NOT come from the list of big winners of 2013, so I am looking a bit more for stocks that have been basing and that haven't made big runs.

 All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

On a personal note, my trading performance was decent I suppose, but I am disappointed overall.  All of my results have been documented in this spreadsheet in as close to real-time as I can get.  My main account was only up 18.2% and that is where the disappointment comes into play.  I take a little solace knowing that since the middle of summer, my account was up about 41% off of its lows, which isn't bad for half a year.  I just couldn't get anything going during the first two quarters.  I wasn't fighting the market, but I was just in a rut.  I would inevitably pick the wrong name or get stopped just by a few cents before watching the same name zoom higher.  It just seemed like the market was against me.  As a trader, you are inevitably going to have these rough periods when it just seems you can't do anything right, but if you stick to it, you will eventually pull through and get back on the winning track.  That doesn't mean of course those rough periods don't suck.  They certainly do.

My performance was much better in my wife and my IRAs, with each up 70% and 79% respectively.  Overall, our accounts were up a combined 36% for the year.   I wish I could have that much higher given the overall market action.   Going forward, being much more selective in my main account is one of my goals as well as showing much more patience with trades in my main account, something that continues to be a weakness. 

Best of luck to you and your family and friends in the year ahead.  

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