Monday, December 30, 2013

Loads and Loads of IPOs (Setups That Is)

One more day of trading left in 2013 and the overwhelming theme for me recently has been the IPO market.  Perhaps this is all due to the overwhelming success (the last two days not withstanding) of Twitter, but my scans have seemingly been overpopulated by IPO bases for a few weeks now.  I have traded some, but haven't held them as I am still wary of a correction to start the year, something I will discuss in my next post on Wednesday.   I really don't know if all of these bases I am seeing in new names is a good thing or a sign of froth.  The biggest problem with most of the charts below are that they are very, very thin and can trade in spastic ways.  

This is a pretty comprehensive list of recent IPOs that are worth watching going forward.   If they aren't on your watchlists, they probably should be, if for nothing else to see how they act.

All charts from TC200, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

If I see lots of these names moving higher AND acting well after potential breakout attempts, then I have to assume that the market wants to still move higher.  If I see lots of fakeouts with these names or patterns failing, I'll take that as a sign that the market is indeed ready to rest.   We shall see.  Best of luck in your final trading efforts of the year. 

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Some Christmas Week Setups

We are moving into a traditionally bullish time of year as funds try to add strong-performing names into their portfolios as the year comes to an end.  We'll see if that holds true again this year soon.  Last week was not easy as some names worked great and others were whippy, but if you pick the right names, you can probably get some decent gains over the next few days too.  Here are some charts I will be watching.   Don't know that I will be holding any of these - most will be day-trades in a thinner holiday environment, but I would consider holding some of the bigger names.

All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Hope everyone has a very happy holiday season.   Best of luck trading this week and enjoy the day off on Wednesday.  

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setups for Week of December 9, 2013 - "Weird Action"

Hi traders.  We saw some weird action on Wall Street Friday as although the overall market was up a decent amount across the board, individual stocks acted much different, particularly growth and momentum names.  For example, I was fully long names like TSLA, FB, and TWTR going into Friday's session, and even though the S&P was up more than 1%, I was stopped out of everything and my account closed 1% lower.  That is not healthy action.  I am not seeing a ton of great risk/reward setups right now so I may chill a bit on the sidelines early this week.  In the video, I discuss the few names I do see worth watching as well as the two "tells" I am focusing on to gauge whether the institutions are going to give us a Santa Claus rally going forward or just stick us with a lump of coal. 

As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I get a lot of emails about the scans and indicators I use in TC2000, the trading software I use on a daily basis and in the weekly videos.  Since many of those scans are proprietary and have taken a lot of work to develop and implement, I am somewhat reluctant to share them to everyone.  Over the past few weeks however, I have been able to set up my scans and TC2000 setup/layout on other user's systems for a fee.  If this is something you are interested in, please email me and I can give you further details.  This would allow you to run the exact same scans, layouts, and indicators that I have developed and use in my TC2000 program.  This will set you up with a basic trading plan very similar to the one I use that includes market timing aspects, tools to judge the overall indexes, as well as scans to run for longs and shorts on a daily basis and ways to manage those setups.

Educational videos that would allow you to learn how to implement these layouts and scans for yourself are also potentially in the works, along with ebooks for those of you interested in setting the scans and layouts up yourself but just need the formulas and PCFs.  Another potential tool/product in the pipeline is a one-on-one mentoring/consulting program online where I can teach you how to use these scans to help you find daily setups, as well as incorporate other important aspects of any trading plan such as market timing and technical analysis into your personal trading.  I do need to gauge interest however before moving further, so if these products sound like something you would be interested in, please feel free to contact me via email or Twitter and let me know.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Some Setups for the Week Ahead (Better Late Than Never...)

Hi traders.  Had family committments this weekend so I apologize for no video.  I'm sharing some setups for the rest of this week now, however.  In my opinion, it remains a tricky and tough market as some stocks work very well but others that you would think would work do nothing but screw with you.  I've been shorting and going long the past few weeks and have had winners on both sides.  Those winners haven't been big enough however to cancel out my losses and my account has gone sideways now for about a month.  It's frustrating for sure, but it happens.  Don't get too upset if you are seeing the same thing happen to you.   It is very much a stock picker's market.

Going forward, I am sticking by the longer-term outlook I have discussed for the past few weeks that I think we are topping while we move higher (if that makes any sense).  I expect to see a significant pullback/correction at some point but I would be surprised if that correction came before the new year starts.   There are a lot of sentiment indicators that are reaching extremes and the price action in many names points to a market that is weaker than it appears to be, but tops take time and we are entering a traditionally bullish time of year.  While I think January 2 will be a very interesting session, I fully expect the market to grind its way higher over the next month so perhaps institutions can continue to distribute stock as the market moves up.

In the meantime, you have to trade accordingly.   I have shorted here and there with mixed results but I suspect that most shorts will be difficult if you have anything more than a day or two time frame.  If you get 5-7% profits on a short, it's awesome in a market like this.  On the long side, I am not swing trading too much at all and settling for profits much quicker and with lower % targets. 

I did see some decent setups in my scans tonight and throughout the day most of my watchlist was up even though the market was lower (particularly the small caps).  This was in direct contrast to how the market acted much of the past few weeks, with the market showing gains overall but many individual stocks trading lower intraday.  Perhaps we are due for a bounce over the next few days because many stocks acted well during today's session.  We'll see I guess.

Hope you have some luck with the setups below.  Comments are made on each chart. As always, if you have any questions or comments about those setups or my trading, feel free to email or send me a tweet.
All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.