Thursday, May 23, 2013

Expecting Some Chop, But Opportunities in Individual Names Will Hopefully Continue

We had an interesting day today on Wall Street with the Nikkei closing down some 7% and our markets gapping down to start things off.   Given the action overseas, most people would have expected futures to be down more than they were, and it was the sort of open that has recently invited bounces.  That's indeed what we got, although looking at things objectively, it wasn't the strongest bounce I've ever seen.  The markets closed basically flat and there is still a lot of work to do to take back and recover from the selling we saw on Wednesday. 

Tomorrow is hard to call in my opinion due to where we closed and my guess is that we are due for some chop over the next week or so.  After having such a slow, smooth, steady (and I would say almost weird) climb from the beginning of this month, it makes sense that volatility picks up a bit and we move up and down without going much of anywhere for a few days.  It's very possible that this rally continues at some point soon and the recent highs are built upon, but for now, I suspect there will be a lot of false moves and headfakes over the next three to four days.  That's kind of what happened from February 20 to March 5, when the market finally broke down a bit after a slow and steady move for the first two months of the year and then proceeded to chop back and forth for the next week and a half. 

After being stopped on all longs yesterday, I did go back into a few names today although I still hold a large hedge in QID.  The past two weeks have been great for momentum stocks and have provided some wonderful opportunities to make good money fast.  I would not be surprised to see action in many of these names continue even if the market flops around for a week or so.  Some names of interest are below.

The gap up in many solars on Tuesday was a clear sign of exhaustion and the reversals put in over the past two sessions are not surprising, but some of these names have now pulled back into short-term support and could easily bounce hard intraday.  I am going to watch these names as potential day-trades, although they are very volatile so be careful.

I am also seeing quite a few names that have been strong over the past few weeks pull back a good bit but bounce back with reversal candles today.  I entered two names that would fit into this category today and will look at others if they show strength going forward.   These will be one or two day trades at max.

A few other names of interest are shown below with some annotations.  I am hopeful that the action in individual names can continue regardless of how the overall market trades and will be watching the names above (among others) closely.  Good luck going forward. 


All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Sunday, May 19, 2013

Having A Plethora of Setups Always Worries Me

Had a ton of setups in my scans this weekend - too many really.  This happens from time to time, and it always is a bit worrisome.  Many times, when I have too many setups to choose from, I either inevitably choose the wrong one (or two or three) or the market throws a curveball and takes a dump for a few days.  I have no clue if that curveball is coming, but the market keeps chugging along in a very calm, tight manner upward.  

This two week move that started at the beginning of May has been a little too calm in my opinion and I continue to expect a shakeout to occur, but it hasn't yet and perhaps won't ever happen.  We'll have to see, but overall I continue to try to take setups as they trigger and as my work schedule and circumstances allow, and hopefully the inordinate amount of interesting charts this weekend isn't a contrarian warning sign. 

Since I have so many, I am just putting a small chart of each below and perhaps you can find a few names that pique your interest or were not yet on your watchlist for the week ahead.  Some of these do need a few more days to setup so I am not necessarily focusing on them tomorrow - the solars in the list below jump to mind.   Some of these are simply viewed as potential intraday poppers that if I get lucky, I could make a quick 5-7% with and then get out.   Many however have consolidated nicely and could be decent swing trades assuming the market keeps slowly and smoothly working its way higher. 

All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Sunday, May 12, 2013

Ones to Watch for the Upcoming Week

Here are some names for early in the week.  Market timing signal is bullish but things are still extended and I have the sense that the market could take a dump at a moment's notice so be careful.   A one-day shakeout would not surprise me at all.

All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Thursday, May 9, 2013

Some Pullback Plays Setting Up Here

The market is still extended a bit here, with today's lower close being the first in five sessions for the Nasdaq, but I saw quite a few nice consolidations in individual stocks tonight in the scans.  Many of these have pulled back into previous breakout/support areas that provide low-risk entry points in most cases.  I am still somewhat scared of breakout buying too as I have had no luck with it throughout this year, so perhaps buying some pullbacks will give me better luck.


A few other setups that I found interesting are below, though none are "pullbacks.

All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

One nice thing about all of the above charts is that according to my ThinkorSwim data, none have earnings in the upcoming week or two.   One less thing to worry about.   Good luck.