Sunday, April 7, 2013

Charts of Interest for the Week Ahead for a Frustrating Market

Gotta be honest traders - I just don't have much interest in trading this particular market right now.  Part of that is my trading results have sucked this year so far, even though I have not shorted anything except for a very few, spread-out times.  I just cannot get anything going, regardless of what the trade is.  Swings are still not working, and day-trades are even hard unless you are scalping, at least for me.  I hope others are having better luck and certainly better success than I am, but I continue to get the sense that even though most won't admit it, this market is making things difficult for many traders right now and has been for most of the year.   In a market like that, you eventually learn to just step away and not join in on all the "fun".  I think that's kind of where I am at right now.  

All of my "timing" indicators, whether it be breadth, distribution, moving average points, etc, have pointed to a market that is correcting for most of the past week.  My timing score has been negative all week, but clearly in the red the past two days based on the above factors.  Doesn't matter much though I guess, because overall the indices continue to hold up somewhat decently.

The S&P has gone nowhere for over a month now and failed to breakout early this week, but at the same time is holding an uptrend line from last November.  There always seems to be dip buyers out there (almost like someone or something is "propping" this market up...hmmm).  Shorting right now, even with a "sell" on the market timing model just doesn't seem to make sense.  Maybe breakdowns below the 50 day moving averages would be enough to get a true correction going.  I don't really know anymore.   The Nasdaq has a very similar setup - going nowhere for the past month but not really breaking down in earnest.   The beat just keeps going on - it's certainly not a market where the bulls are running wild, but the bears just can't do anything either. 

S&P 500
Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

I am posting some of the better charts I saw in my scans this weekend below, but I am very hesitant to do much going forward here.  I just don't think there is much of an edge.  Again, maybe it's just me.  I will watch a few of these names closely but plan on using much smaller position sizes until this stupid market starts acting like it wants to reward swing trades in a more consistent manner.

All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Good luck this week and be careful.  I know personal trades may be skewing my outlook, but unless you're out there scalping trades for minutes at a time, I really believe this market is a very difficult one to make easy money.  Sometimes it's best to just chill. 


Jure said...

This market has been difficult even for swing traders indeed. I just want to say that I understand your frustration. I have pretty much the same performance YTD as you do:) Better times will come when least expected. Don't loose your focus in frustration.

In the mean time, would you discuss a little bit about your market timing model in one of future posts?

Anonymous said...

I just woke up and saw red on the S&P am I dreaming LOL. This market cannot go down.

There is a UPWARDS channel on the daily S&P that is quite strong =>

I think there are 3 things at play.

1) Too many people go bearish.

2) Funds being pumped into asian markets needed to go somewhere? SO dumped into our US markets, instead of the emerging markets.

3) many people are saying "do not fight the fed" as ben bernanke now has a hobby of PRINT....PRINT....PRINT LOL.

We be interesting to see what happens next week and when the big bank report on FRIDAY.