Monday, December 30, 2013

Loads and Loads of IPOs (Setups That Is)

One more day of trading left in 2013 and the overwhelming theme for me recently has been the IPO market.  Perhaps this is all due to the overwhelming success (the last two days not withstanding) of Twitter, but my scans have seemingly been overpopulated by IPO bases for a few weeks now.  I have traded some, but haven't held them as I am still wary of a correction to start the year, something I will discuss in my next post on Wednesday.   I really don't know if all of these bases I am seeing in new names is a good thing or a sign of froth.  The biggest problem with most of the charts below are that they are very, very thin and can trade in spastic ways.  

This is a pretty comprehensive list of recent IPOs that are worth watching going forward.   If they aren't on your watchlists, they probably should be, if for nothing else to see how they act.

ATHM
 BIND
 BNFT
 CGIX
 CHGG
 DOC
 FEYE
 FUEL
 EIGI
 JGW
 MKTO
 OMED
 RCPT
 SFXE
 TWTR
 WIX
 WUBA
 XOOM
 YUME
 ZU
All charts from TC200, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

If I see lots of these names moving higher AND acting well after potential breakout attempts, then I have to assume that the market wants to still move higher.  If I see lots of fakeouts with these names or patterns failing, I'll take that as a sign that the market is indeed ready to rest.   We shall see.  Best of luck in your final trading efforts of the year. 

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Some Christmas Week Setups

We are moving into a traditionally bullish time of year as funds try to add strong-performing names into their portfolios as the year comes to an end.  We'll see if that holds true again this year soon.  Last week was not easy as some names worked great and others were whippy, but if you pick the right names, you can probably get some decent gains over the next few days too.  Here are some charts I will be watching.   Don't know that I will be holding any of these - most will be day-trades in a thinner holiday environment, but I would consider holding some of the bigger names.

BNFT
CAMT
DECK
EJ
ERII
FB
IPCI
MGAM
TWTR
UNTD
VIPS
XRS
YY
GOGO
ZLTQ
All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Hope everyone has a very happy holiday season.   Best of luck trading this week and enjoy the day off on Wednesday.  

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setups for Week of December 9, 2013 - "Weird Action"

Hi traders.  We saw some weird action on Wall Street Friday as although the overall market was up a decent amount across the board, individual stocks acted much different, particularly growth and momentum names.  For example, I was fully long names like TSLA, FB, and TWTR going into Friday's session, and even though the S&P was up more than 1%, I was stopped out of everything and my account closed 1% lower.  That is not healthy action.  I am not seeing a ton of great risk/reward setups right now so I may chill a bit on the sidelines early this week.  In the video, I discuss the few names I do see worth watching as well as the two "tells" I am focusing on to gauge whether the institutions are going to give us a Santa Claus rally going forward or just stick us with a lump of coal. 




As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I get a lot of emails about the scans and indicators I use in TC2000, the trading software I use on a daily basis and in the weekly videos.  Since many of those scans are proprietary and have taken a lot of work to develop and implement, I am somewhat reluctant to share them to everyone.  Over the past few weeks however, I have been able to set up my scans and TC2000 setup/layout on other user's systems for a fee.  If this is something you are interested in, please email me and I can give you further details.  This would allow you to run the exact same scans, layouts, and indicators that I have developed and use in my TC2000 program.  This will set you up with a basic trading plan very similar to the one I use that includes market timing aspects, tools to judge the overall indexes, as well as scans to run for longs and shorts on a daily basis and ways to manage those setups.

Educational videos that would allow you to learn how to implement these layouts and scans for yourself are also potentially in the works, along with ebooks for those of you interested in setting the scans and layouts up yourself but just need the formulas and PCFs.  Another potential tool/product in the pipeline is a one-on-one mentoring/consulting program online where I can teach you how to use these scans to help you find daily setups, as well as incorporate other important aspects of any trading plan such as market timing and technical analysis into your personal trading.  I do need to gauge interest however before moving further, so if these products sound like something you would be interested in, please feel free to contact me via email or Twitter and let me know.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Some Setups for the Week Ahead (Better Late Than Never...)

Hi traders.  Had family committments this weekend so I apologize for no video.  I'm sharing some setups for the rest of this week now, however.  In my opinion, it remains a tricky and tough market as some stocks work very well but others that you would think would work do nothing but screw with you.  I've been shorting and going long the past few weeks and have had winners on both sides.  Those winners haven't been big enough however to cancel out my losses and my account has gone sideways now for about a month.  It's frustrating for sure, but it happens.  Don't get too upset if you are seeing the same thing happen to you.   It is very much a stock picker's market.

Going forward, I am sticking by the longer-term outlook I have discussed for the past few weeks that I think we are topping while we move higher (if that makes any sense).  I expect to see a significant pullback/correction at some point but I would be surprised if that correction came before the new year starts.   There are a lot of sentiment indicators that are reaching extremes and the price action in many names points to a market that is weaker than it appears to be, but tops take time and we are entering a traditionally bullish time of year.  While I think January 2 will be a very interesting session, I fully expect the market to grind its way higher over the next month so perhaps institutions can continue to distribute stock as the market moves up.

In the meantime, you have to trade accordingly.   I have shorted here and there with mixed results but I suspect that most shorts will be difficult if you have anything more than a day or two time frame.  If you get 5-7% profits on a short, it's awesome in a market like this.  On the long side, I am not swing trading too much at all and settling for profits much quicker and with lower % targets. 

I did see some decent setups in my scans tonight and throughout the day most of my watchlist was up even though the market was lower (particularly the small caps).  This was in direct contrast to how the market acted much of the past few weeks, with the market showing gains overall but many individual stocks trading lower intraday.  Perhaps we are due for a bounce over the next few days because many stocks acted well during today's session.  We'll see I guess.

Hope you have some luck with the setups below.  Comments are made on each chart. As always, if you have any questions or comments about those setups or my trading, feel free to email or send me a tweet.
AFOP
 BITA
 BWLD
 CSIQ
 FLDM
 HLF
 PCRX
 PVA
 SGEN
 SPLK
 SUNE
 WAGE
All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setups for Thanksgiving Week - "Positive Bias But Still Iffy "

Hi traders.  We have a holiday trading week ahead of us and as such, you can expect lower trading volumes and (at least historically) a positive bias.   The market is in grind up mode but I continue to see issues underneath the surface and the stocks that suit my style just aren't acting as well as they did a few weeks or months ago.  I've been harping on this for a while now and perhaps in two or three months it will all make sense.  In the meantime, I included some setups on both sides of the market that will hopefully make some money in the week ahead.  I am still in short-term mode until I see individual names act better.



I get a lot of emails about the scans and indicators I use in TC2000, which is the trading software I use on a daily basis and in the weekly videos.  Since many of those scans are proprietary and have taken a lot of work to develop and implement, I am somewhat reluctant to share them to everyone.  Over the past few weeks however, I have had several requests to set up my scans and TC2000 setup/layout on other user's systems and have been able to oblige those folks for a fee.   If this is something you are interested in, please email me and I can give you further details.  This would allow you to run the exact same scans and indicators that I have developed and use in my TC2000 program.  I am also working on starting up a one-on-one mentoring/consulting program online where I can teach you how to use these scans to help you find daily setups, as well as incorporate other important aspects of any trading plan such as market timing and technical analysis into your personal trading.  If you are interested, please feel free to contact me via email or Twitter

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setups for Week of November 18, 2013 - "Looking Better"

Hi traders.  Looks like the market is in melt up mode right now as stocks continue to move higher and don't seem at all fazed by the big one-day drop we saw two weeks ago.  I am seeing better action in individual names and currently hold two long positions.   I haven't been trading really well these past few weeks but hopefully the setups I share are serving you better - GOGO and RMTI were two big winners that I specifically tagged at the end of last week's video.  Good luck in the week ahead.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setups for Veterans Day Week - "Wild Action Makes Things Tricky"

Hi traders.  It was a wild week on Wall Street and a challenging one.  When you see a seventy point move down on the Nasdaq followed by a sixty point move up the following session, something is not quite right.  Scalping might work in a market like this, but little else will, so patience is important.  Swing trading is very, very difficult right now. I continue to see a lot of former leaders break down, but I also see a decent amount of stocks holding up so if the bulls want to right the ship, I will give them the benefit of doubt in time.  As for now, I am keeping everything light and short-term only until things become more clear.  

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setups for Week of November 3, 2013 - "Time To Be Patient"

Hi traders.  It was a tricky week on Wall Street this past week (at least for me) as the indexes pulled back a bit and individual stocks continued to give bearish signals in some cases and false signals in others.  The former leaders of September and October continue to get beaten up, but the real problem is that there haven't been as many to clearly step up and take their place.  I am seeing some setups out there (which I highlight in the video among others) but the overall quality of them is not the same as they were a month or two ago.  Because of that, I think it's important to be patient here and not overtrade, as there may not be a big edge for the bulls or bears at this point.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setup for Week of October 28, 2013 - A Few Warning Signs

Hi traders.   This week was an interesting one as the overall markets held up very well but the action underneath the surface was much more challenging to play.  I continue to see some things that bother me going forward and am beginning to wonder if this market is not slyly being distributed by instiutions.  I talk about why I am feeling this in the video and go over the charts that are worrying me right now.

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setups for Week of October 21, 2013 - "Rest Time?"

Hi traders. We saw a very strong week on Wall Street this week with leaders reestablishing themselves and a few earnings reports acting extremely well. These are all great signs going forward. In the meantime, however, the market is overbought and could really use some rest. Hopefully it comes although that's not guaranteed. If it happens, a lot of the leading names should set up buyable flags and the party can continue over the next few weeks.   All of these ideas are explained in the video below. 

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setups for Columbus Day Week - "Tricky, Tricky Market"

Hi traders.   Volatility was crazy this week as Idiotville, DC continues to hold the market by its balls.  The recovery of the past two sessions was quite impressive, but there are also a lot of warning signs out there, particularly with how former leaders acted, so it's going to be tricky going forward.  My main concern is that action of the (former?) leaders like LNKD, TSLA, FB, NFLX, NQ and others this week versus the action of the overall market.   I also saw much less quality in my long scans this weekend than I have for the past four or five weekend which is a concern to me.  I discuss these issues in the video.

For example, my "Terrific Twenty" for the week is shown below.  The fundamentals and quality of these stocks is much worse than that of previous weeks when the names mentioned above were populating the list.  However, the chart patterns of many of those names aren't worthy of being put in a list of the top twenty stocks for the week ahead and so they are absent and this list as a whole is lacking.  Maybe this won't matter, but I think it is important.


Good luck in the week ahead.   I think this market is very tricky at the current juncture and neither a big move back down or a giant squeeze higher would surprise me going forward.  I don't like that feeling as a trader because I don't feel like I have an edge, so I may remain mostly in cash until things settle down and the issues holding this market hostage at this moment are resolved.   

Monday, October 7, 2013

Thoughts About Today, Idiotville D.C., and What Tomorrow May Bring

Going into today session, both the Nasdaq and S&P had finished either at the top of their intraday range or well off the lows after heavy selling in the morning for the previous seven sessions.  We saw repeated strong attempts by the bears to bring this market down, and nothing they did seemed to be able to stick.  The repeated stands put up by the bulls over the past week in the face of no positive news coming from our nation's capital was or at least appeared to be very bullish.   Today was different.

Seeing a decent sized gap lower this morning was nothing new.   Seeing bulls respond by buying the dip at the open and pushing the market well off the opening lows was also nothing new.  The reaction however we saw from 10:30 on was new.  It was a lot different from anything we have seen over the past seven sessions.   There was no more bounce.   There was no more closing near highs.  What we did see was a selloff into the close.  We saw a close at the lows of the session for the first time since Wednesday, September 25 by my count.  We saw the S&P close below its fifty day moving average.   We saw the Russell 2000 close below its twenty day moving average for the first time in over a month (September 6 to be exact).  We saw the Nasdaq come perilously close to doing the same.  

To summarize, today seemed to be a character change for this market.   This is only a guess on my part, but it felt like the bulls, after defending key levels so many times over the past seven sessions on the expectation that Washington would come to an agreement and make everything better, got tired.   They just couldn't do it.  They were worn out.  That bears watching (no pun intended).

I hope to heck I am wrong because I would like nothing more than to get back on margin fully long and have stocks run into the end of the year with me on the train.  Unfortunately, I am getting the sense that we are in for a rough week or two coming up and that cash might be a good option right now.   Wall Street has been trained over the past few years to expect the news that it wants to hear - you need not go past the most recent Fed announcement when many feared a taper and what we all got instead was more QE. 

Did Wall Street expect this mess in Washington to be fixed relatively quickly, even if they realized that there may be some posturing on both sides?   I know I did.  I've been trained too.  Maybe I am the only one.  This situation however seems a little different.   There is no deadline where a deal has to be done by a certain date, unless you throw the government shutdown together with the debt ceiling issue.   This uncertainty could go on for a while because of that.   Both sides seem to be dug in pretty well.   What exactly is going to be the catalyst to get a deal done?   Right now, one catalyst that stands out in my mind is a big move lower on Wall Street.  That may force their hand a bit.  This idea was discussed very nicely in an article I read today by Reformed Broker, although it was put out before trading today and didn't have the benefit of seeing today's action.

I am still very hopeful for a year-end rally from which I can get crazy long and ride a wave higher.   There are still a good deal of stocks holding up very well even with the action over the past week.  Some cracks are starting to show however.

LNKD has been one of the true leading stocks for 2013.  It closed below its fifty day moving average today on heavier volume.

NQ has everything you could ask for in a stock - great fundamentals, great relative strength, and a breakout from a historically bullish high, tight flag pattern.  It looks poised to break below its key $20 breakout area tomorrow morning off of a secondary after-hours.

On September 26 and 27, TSLA made all-time highs on lower volume.  Last Wednesday and Thursday saw it slice through its short-term moving averages on extremely heavy volume and recover slightly the past two days on much lighter volume

Again, I hope I am wrong but I sense that the next week or so - perhaps the rest of the month of October - may be a difficult one.  Maybe I am biased because I had a rough day trading today, getting stopped out of most of my long positions.   Perhaps that is telling me something too.   I am mainly in cash here except for two shorts I put on today.  I am ready and willing to get long if the market tells me to do so, but my watchlist for tomorrow is rather barren compared to what it has looked like over the past few weeks.  

Be careful here.  This mess in Washington could go for longer than most think, and it may take Wall Street sending a clear message of dissatisfaction through selling shares to get them working toward some sort of agreement.   The bulls gave it their best fight and perhaps they have some fight left, but based on today's action, I think they are simply worn out.   Trade accordingly. 

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setup for Week of October 7, 2013 - "Uncertainty..."

Hi traders.  We had an interesting week on Wall Street, with lots of volatility and a high level of uncertainty going forward.   For various reasons, I am still leaning bullish and explain why in the video, but also have a clear signal that I am looking for that would change my outlook and plan going forward.   I also go through my "Terrific Twenty" for the week and other setups that look promising if the market cooperates in the week ahead.  

Sunday, September 29, 2013

Stock Market Video - Outlook and Setups for Week of September 30, 2013 - "Tale of Two Markets"

Hi traders - here's the video for the week ahead.  It was an interesting week in that we saw some real weakness is big-time leading stocks early last week but for almost all of those leaders, that weakness turned out to be temporary.   The S&P continues to struggle to do much of anything positive but with the daily charts of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 looking the way they do, it is hard to get bearish about much here.  Basically as IBD said this weekend, we kind of have two different markets here, and two are either going to bring the other one up or vice versa.   Since most individual stocks still look quite strong and bullish, I have to remain bullish going forward.   If we see more sessions like Monday without leaders bouncing back, then I will change my outlook.   Hope the setups help you out.   Good luck in the week ahead. 

=

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Stock Market Outlook and Setups for Week of September 23, 2013 - "Still Looking Good"

We saw another strong week on Wall Street as the Fed gave the market what it wanted with no tapering and the market acted accordingly.   Wednesday was a great day, and although the markets pulled back slightly on Thursday and Friday, that was completely expected and understandable and many individual stocks continue to put in great gains.  This continues to be a strong market overall. 

The major indices all still look fine on both a short and long-term basis.  The S&P is weakest of the three based on Friday's action, but as long as the indices close above their nine day exponential moving averages, you have to remain bullish and patient. 

Nasdaq
 Russell 2000
 S&P 500

My "Terrific Twenty" list was easier to narrow down this week than last as I didn't see as many overall setups in my scans, and that eliminates a lot of potential candidates.  Overall, the recent trends hold true - internet-related stocks, Chinese stocks, etc.  As it is, the stocks in this week's list are all acting very well and until I see some clear distribution in these names with moving average breakdowns, I see little reason to be bearish about anything.   Not many of these are at safe buy points as of now, but my three core long positions (had four but got shaken out of FB on Monday) are in this list and it pays to focus on these names for any new buys going forward.  Some may very well set up soon with a bit of rest and go much higher.

 AFOP FENG MEI TNGO
 AMBA, VIPS, XOOM, HIMX
 NFLX LNKD TSLA YELP
 NQ YY SFUN QIHU
 REGN NUS FB YNDX

Here is a quick spreadsheet view with some of the data I use with the Terrific Twenty as well as how I have them ranked this week.  This is a project I continue to fine tune and work on but I find it to be a great drill and forces me to really look at names and study who the true leaders are.


As I just said, I didn't see as many long setups in my scans this week, but perhaps that will change if the market can rest a few more days.  There are a lot of extended individual names out there simply due to the strength of the market the past two weeks, so hopefully you are already invested and have been holding strong names and making some nice gains.  The names I do see this week are shown below.

Good fundamentals - CSTE AMBA OSTK CAAS
 More Speculative Names - OSIR RSOL ANAC IQNT

One name that I have been watching for a few months now as a potential bottoming play is SKUL, and it popped on Friday on heavy volume and has my interest.  That volume pop may have been options related, but it did clear some important resistance around $6 and has been moving sideways for a while with very little selling volume.   Fundamentals don't look good (which makes sense given the chart) and they are not expected to improve until 2014, but just keep this name on your watchlists.  If it flags here above that former resistance, it might be worth tucking in an IRA as a long-term play. 

SKUL Daily
 SKUL Weekly
All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Overall, things still look good although chasing longs that are extended is never a great idea.  Hopefully, you have been establishing positions over the last few weeks and are holding them.  I think the market could consolidate further or even pullback a few percentage points, which is why I still have a large temporary hedge on via SQQQ, but any pullback may not last long with the quarter ending over the next week.   September is traditionally a poor month on Wall Street, but it has been great in 2013.  Let's hope it ends on a strong note.  Best of luck in the week ahead.