Monday, October 8, 2012

Still a Tough Market To Call

Let me start this post by saying I exited all longs Friday and went into a QID position which worked well today. The market is no doubt struggling here.  Although the S&P is holding up, both the Russell and Nasdaq are starting to break down from bear flags and AAPL broke down through some very key levels today.   Without AAPL cooperating, I find it hard to see the bulls getting their mojo back anytime soon, at least as strong a mojo that they had from August to mid-September.

At the same time, I am not super-bearish at this point.  If we head lower tomorrow, I will probably close my QID swing and either stay in cash or look for some short-term longs.  I would be more bearish from a longer-term perspective if the bears could have run with things the past few days but they just really didn't push.   There have been several times over the past two weeks that the market gapped up and then started selling off mid-morning, but none of those selloffs felt that severe to me.  They certainly weren't bullish, but they left me feeling like the bears should have done more.  Volume wasn't heavy today either.  We'll see going forward I guess but I think it's a strong possibility that we are just stuck in a range here and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.  

In a market where neither the bears or bulls have a clear advantage, picking stocks becomes harder.  Individual stocks continue to work on a case by case basis - you just have to be a bit lucky with which ones you choose.   These are the charts I am watching for the rest of this week - didn't see much over the weekend but more showed up tonight.   I have a small position in SRPT after today as I expect a bounce attempt sometime soon (and if it doesn't come I will quickly be out) but that's it.  If the market shows any strength, I will look at these charts for triggers.  Good luck this week - it looks like it will be a challenging one. 

Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

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