Sunday, April 1, 2012

"Bullish Until Proven Otherwise" - Outlook for the Week Ahead and Eleven Setups To Watch

Hi traders - here's my outlook for the week ahead.  Hopefully you caught some winners this week - two stocks I highlighted both Sunday and Monday of last week were EPAM and TNP and both acted great this week.  Unfortunately, I missed both as EPAM gapped up on earnings and TNP because it did not have much volume on its original "breakout" Tuesday so I passed.  Not a great decision there on my part. 

I am not a raging bull here, but I am certainly leaning that way because my signals remain mostly bullish and the three main indices have held their individual levels of support pretty well so far.  The Nasdaq remains above its nine day EMA, the S&P above its twenty day EMA, and the Russell 2000 remains above its fifty day moving average.   If any of these break, then my opinion will change.   We are also a little oversold after last week so a bounce is probably due.   We have had some distribution days thrown into the mix over the past few weeks so that is something to watch.   If we see more of those, then it will be time to reassess as well.

I have three long positions on right now as I caught some bad luck with INVN on Friday when it was downgraded.   I finished the quarter up 21%, which is disappointing for me to be honest because there were so many opportunities out there that I missed.   A big part of that is working full-time and not being able to follow early movers and instead having to try to guess on stocks with buy stops or catch breakouts late and risk getting whipsawed.   If I am up 21% for each of the next three quarters, I will be happy because I highly doubt this market will give us as many opportunities for the entire rest of this year as it has so far, but there will be some so you always want to be ready.  For now, however, I expect more from myself.

Here are a few names that I will be watching this week.  Volume may be very light during the latter part of the week due to the holiday so be aware - a lot of weird things can happen on those low volume days.  Good luck this week. 
All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.


mushin2003 said...

I would die for a 21% quarter :) It would make me feel better about possibly being profitable for the year.
This comment "...TNP because it did not have much volume on its original "breakout" Tuesday so I passed. Not a great decision there on my part." I think this type of thinking should be discarded and will only cause more doubts. If you followed your rules then be happy you passed.
I am starting to think that having something to keep you away from the markets (another job) is a good thing because while you may miss some entries. People who are constantly watching the markets have numerous issues to deal with that can be as debilitating to the account as well.

Anonymous said...

Looking through your trades now, thanks for the ideas.

Mac said...


I agree that not being able to watch the market all day can be a blessing at times. If I could catch just the first half hour, check in at lunch, and then catch the close, it would be perfect. However, my work schedule changed this year and my break is in the afternoon instead of the morning so I am unable to catch most opens. Because of that, I can't watch 15-20 stock looking for triggers and instead have to guess on three or four to put buy stops on and miss out on any other movers. It is what it is.