Tuesday, March 13, 2012

"Bullish as Bullish Can Be" - Market Outlook and Setups for Wednesday - 3/13/12

Today was about as bullish as bullish can be.   It was kind of a weird session early on (at least in my opinion) because the stocks I was watching just wouldn't do much(LNKD for example), and the ones I did see move were putting in reversals even with the overall market moving higher throughout the day(INVN, FTK, FIO for example).   By the end of the session, however, some of those reversals bounced back and I saw many more stocks starting to move, so all is well I guess.   I think it is safe to put this market back on a "buy" signal as it seems quite clear stocks want to move higher. 

We are a bit overbought here so I would not be shocked at a little shakeout attempt soon by the bears, but that is not a given.  Momentum might just take this thing higher without much rest (see January 2012).  The nice thing about the move today is that support should now be pretty clear on both the Nasdaq (3000) and the S&P (1380ish).  Don't underestimate the power of that big round number of 3000 being broken for the Naz either - I'm sure you'll hear the news media talking it up and that could give a further boost or at worst a floor for the time being.

Here are some of the charts I entered today and also some I am watching tomorrow.   I have been long for the past four days BUT I have not been patient with my trades and it has hurt my bottom-line.   I thought the three-day bounce on lower volume last week could be troublesome and because of that kept tight stops on my longs Friday and Monday, but that was the wrong strategy.  For example, FRAN was a long I entered last week a bit under $24, but was stopped yesterday as I tightened it up.   It's trading around $29 after-hours today on earnings.  I likely would not have held into earnings anyway, but you get the point - lost out on a big one there.   I still have my stops set on today's longs, but the action is clearly back in the hands of the bulls so I am going to try and give more room to the setups I have.
All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Good luck Wednesday - hopefully you have some long positions in place as I don't know if now is the time to chase a bunch of names, but the action was certainly bullish today so any dips will get will likely be bought up quickly.  It would be a major curve ball if we top out very soon.  Take care.


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the setups! I especially like the EXH and VVUS sets. Best wishes tomorrow!
- Steve Clem

Anonymous said...

hi mac

very bearish on dow if it rises another 50~70points from the dayhigh of 13mar.

mini me