Monday, March 26, 2012

"As Good as It Gets" - Market Analysis and Setups for Tomorrow

You can't ask for anything more from the bulls than what they did today.   Today's move was what I was hoping on Friday when I was talking about the bulls "stepping up", but a day late is no big deal I guess.   With the Nasdaq, S&P, and Russell all moving to new highs for the year today, it certainly seems that the bulls are fully back in control of this market after last week's slight pullback.   No need to fight - if you're not long here, you need to reassess your strategies big-time.   Over the past three days, I have shared many setups that were up nicely today, so hopefully you benefited.

Here are the charts I will be watching but as of now I have about as many positions as I want to have so any other trades will likely be very short-term in nature unless I am stopped out of one of my current positions.   It would not be bad to see the market put in a day or two of rest here after today's big day so perhaps some of these can setup even further.   We're a bit overbought in the short-term so a little selling tomorrow would not be a shock either.  However, entering the end of both the month and the quarter, I would expect any dip to be quickly bought and perhaps we'll just see some major window-dressing this week anyway without a rest.  Good luck Tuesday.

All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Saturday, March 24, 2012

Stock Market Videos - Overall Market Outlook and Setups for the Week Ahead - March 24, 2012

Hi traders - here are two videos for the week ahead.

Part one of this video takes a look at the overall market and where we are at heading into next week. I also look at my current positions and some of the names I shared this week on the blog.

Part two goes over the long setups I am watching. I need to narrow this list down but I flagged the ones that are what I would call "higher quality" stocks, meaning stocks with good fundamentals and charts. Hope some of these play out well next week.


Hope you enjoy the videos and find them informative.  Best of luck next week.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Setups to Watch For Friday - Still Bullish But Bulls Better Step Up Soon

We saw some selling today on Wall Street, but I didn't really see that much damage done when I went through my scans.  Therefore, I am still thinking of this for now as a rest/small pullback.   However, we did see the S&P close below its nine day EMA and the Russell close below both its nine and twenty day EMAs, so all is not well.  In my opinion, as long as the bulls can hold this area and step up tomorrow, I think things will be just fine.  They put up a decent fight in the last hour and hopefully that continues tomorrow.   Now if we see more selling tomorrow, then my outlook changes completely.   I tried a small amount of TZA today but was stopped out late.  More selling would have me looking at QID or TZA hard.   The direction for the next week will likely be decided by how the bulls respond tomorrow.

Here are some names that look good here - some were posted last night.   Not much triggered today simply because the market was weak.   Let's see if we can get some tomorrow.

All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

MId-Week Market Update - Still Long But a Few Worrisome Signs

We saw a mixed market today on Wall Street - choppy trade most of the session but a dip late put the S&P slightly in the red while the Nasdaq finished slightly positive.   There was no real damage done that I see and as long as the indices continue to hold their nine day EMAs, then I will continue to be bullish.   However, I am on watch for signs of weakness here and will trade accordingly.

One reason I am watching carefully for signs of weakness is that I saw a few stocks that had failed breakout attempts or finished well off of their highs for the session.   Names like FOSL, SWHC, YELP, ALLT, LNKD, FRAN and ZNGA all were strong early but faded.   Maybe it's nothing, but I never like seeing breakout attempts fail as it is a sign of a weakening or stalling market.   That three of those names were recent IPOs (the hottest of all groups right now in this market) makes me pause.


The two stocks that stood out to me were LNKD and ZNGA, but that's probably because I had positions in both entering today.   I was surprised LNKD couldn't hold $100 when it broke above that big round number around lunchtime.  Today's gap could have been a breakaway gap but now I'm sensing this gap will have to be filled over the next few weeks.   That stock just doesn't seem to want to be a big-time leader yet.   ZNGA may have sold off on acquisition news but regardless of the cause, this is now two times in three weeks that the stock has put in nasty intraday reversals.  Again, it seems like it just doesn't want to prosper and be a leader yet.

Here are the setups I am watching for tomorrow.   Since I still see setups out there, I am still preparing to take them, but this week has been a struggle for my account just like the past two weeks were.  It feels like I am just spinning my wheels as I make some good money on a few trades but then get whipsawed on a series of others. I am not losing money overall, but I am not making much either - account is going sideways.   It is what it is - a big part of it is not being able to watch the market all day and not being able to monitor my positions until it is sometimes too late.  This week it seems like gains have disappeared very quickly.  Seems like a better day-trading market right now than anything else because follow-through from day to day is iffy (CHS is an example - another stock I am holding for now). 

 All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Overall, as long as short-term support holds, then I will remain focused on the long side of the market.   However, if I see any signs of weakness in other IPOs like INVN, KORS, or JIVE or see more failed breakouts, then I will have to reassess.  For me, the health of these IPO stocks is a big tell for the overall market because they've been so strong.  If you start seeing them breakdown, then watch out.  Good luck Thursday.

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Market Outlook and Setups For Week Of March 19, 2012

Hi traders - sorry for the late post but I had a busy weekend working on some household projects.  Friday was a nice calm day which is a positive with a market that has been up seven out of the past eight sessions (for the S&P, including Friday).   I do think the market could use some rest or sideways action here, but I don't know if we'll get it.   Commodity names were big on Friday so money may be rotating that way, which could lead to further gains for the overall market as rotation takes place.  Perhaps some sectors will rest but the overall market could keep moving higher.

I saw a lot of nice charts in my scans this weekend but some already broke above the resistance levels that I would aim to buy (CYOU, IRE, EXH for example)at so I likely won't be chasing them with the market somewhat extended.   If we were coming off of a major pullback, I wouldn't have as much concern buying names that were up 7-8% the previous session.  

Since we had such a calm day on Friday, most if not all of the setups I shared Thursday night are still valid.   Here are a few others that are near important trendlines and could run if they bust through - however be aware that because the market is a bit extended, you could see some whipsaw action on breakout plays.   I seemed to catch a lot of those whipsaws last week, but perhaps that was just bad luck or bad trading on my part.
All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Ideally, I would like to see a few days of rest early in the week and allow some of the leading stocks of this market to set up better, but who knows if that happens?   My gameplan really hasn't changed - go long stocks that appear to be breaking out and hope I get some luck.   IPOs remain hot so keep them on your watchlists and see if they consolidate into nice patterns.  My two favorite stocks right now are both recent IPOs but need some rest before I would consider entering.   As always, I will be watching the short-term moving averages for the indices on any selling - as long as they hold, then your focus should remain solely on the long side.  Good luck this week.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Some Thoughts and Long Setups for Tomorrow - 3/15/12

Hi traders - I had a few short videos for you but could not get them to upload so I will just post some charts below and leave some stuff out.  I don't know about anyone else, but for me, the past two days have been a struggle even though the market has advanced.   Coming off of Tuesday's big move, I expected to see more momentum in individual names and really all I have seen is a lack of momentum on nice setups and several whipsaws.   A market that is going up as fast as this one should be easy, but I don't think this week has been.   Even today with the market up most of the session, I noticed very little talk on Twitter about big movers or nice breakouts that the traders I follow were able to get into and ride.   That tells me something.   Then of course you have the semi-parabolic move in AAPL and at least in the back of my mind I start thinking about looking out for a top in this area.

I am NOT calling for a top here - I'd like to think I am not that stupid.  However, it is in my thought process right now.  I am keeping on eye on several things - specifically this super-hot IPO sector with names like KORS, INVN, BCOV, JIVE, and FRAN as they have been moving so nicely that any weakness shown here could be a sign that the party is over for the time being.   So far, there are none of those signs in this area, but again I am just on watch. 

Here are some of the current setups I see out there.   Once I see better follow-through in my watchlist, my "topping fears" will dissipate.   Maybe I am just having a stretch of bad luck or bad trading the past few days.   Either way, check out the names below and see for yourself how they work tomorrow.   Although I do have a small QID position here, I have been long for the entire week and continue to hold several longs (although I have been stopped out of many this week). 

                                 All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Good luck Friday - hopefully things will get easier (at least for me) and we'll see some more follow-through in individual names. 

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

"Bullish as Bullish Can Be" - Market Outlook and Setups for Wednesday - 3/13/12

Today was about as bullish as bullish can be.   It was kind of a weird session early on (at least in my opinion) because the stocks I was watching just wouldn't do much(LNKD for example), and the ones I did see move were putting in reversals even with the overall market moving higher throughout the day(INVN, FTK, FIO for example).   By the end of the session, however, some of those reversals bounced back and I saw many more stocks starting to move, so all is well I guess.   I think it is safe to put this market back on a "buy" signal as it seems quite clear stocks want to move higher. 

We are a bit overbought here so I would not be shocked at a little shakeout attempt soon by the bears, but that is not a given.  Momentum might just take this thing higher without much rest (see January 2012).  The nice thing about the move today is that support should now be pretty clear on both the Nasdaq (3000) and the S&P (1380ish).  Don't underestimate the power of that big round number of 3000 being broken for the Naz either - I'm sure you'll hear the news media talking it up and that could give a further boost or at worst a floor for the time being.

Here are some of the charts I entered today and also some I am watching tomorrow.   I have been long for the past four days BUT I have not been patient with my trades and it has hurt my bottom-line.   I thought the three-day bounce on lower volume last week could be troublesome and because of that kept tight stops on my longs Friday and Monday, but that was the wrong strategy.  For example, FRAN was a long I entered last week a bit under $24, but was stopped yesterday as I tightened it up.   It's trading around $29 after-hours today on earnings.  I likely would not have held into earnings anyway, but you get the point - lost out on a big one there.   I still have my stops set on today's longs, but the action is clearly back in the hands of the bulls so I am going to try and give more room to the setups I have.
All Charts from TC2000, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Good luck Wednesday - hopefully you have some long positions in place as I don't know if now is the time to chase a bunch of names, but the action was certainly bullish today so any dips will get will likely be bought up quickly.  It would be a major curve ball if we top out very soon.  Take care.