Friday, May 20, 2011

Today SHOULD Be An Important Day....Should Be....

Today SHOULD be an important day on Wall Street because we are at some key levels and both a breakout and a rollover are equally strong possibilities.   The two charts below illustrate the point we are at here very well.  

Nasdaq 100
U.S. Dollar

I also see almost an equal number of short setups in my scans versus long setups.   This is somewhat rare but it again illustrates that the market is at a key point here that will likely determine its direction for the next few weeks. 

A Few Potential Longs
A Few Potential Shorts
Charts from Telechart, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

I believe today is also options expiration for the market.  So what does all of this mean?  I hope I am wrong, but maybe nothing.   Going into today's session, Europe is flat, Asia was flat, and if my memory serves me correctly, most options sessions recently have been rather boring.  The past two months gave us gains of 0.29% in March and 0.16% in April, and then the real action took place the following Monday (up 1.83% and down 1.06% respectively).  So although I don't want this to happen, I have a feeling today might be a "blah" day with the real action (and therefore the real move) occurring Monday, possibly with a gap.  It certainly makes swing trading more difficult, but that's what Mr. Market likes to do.

I am short here with two positions but that's it and may get out of those today if the market doesn't fall here.  My signals remain bearish and the technical patterns look bearish too, so that's why I am leaning that way. We've seen this story before, however, so keep your mindset open.   I have the day off work today and will be around until 12:00, so if you have any questions, feel free to tweet me.   Good luck today.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

hi mac
did u receive the email of dow chart i sent u 2 weeks ago?

today is definitely not easy unless we stay b4 LCD screen every 5mins. the early section obvious bottom divs triggered such a big intraday bounce from -100 to -20, and then a Head-n-shoulder top brought it down again. im looking the monday drop (to break today's low) if there is any bottom divs, had to cover the shorts.

overnite position is difficult, intraday is difficult. the short term bottom of may is not too faraway however.

mini me