Tuesday, May 3, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 5/3/11 - "At a Crossroads..."

We saw a pretty nasty day today on Wall Street, with leaders getting hit left and right and although the market closed off of its lows for session, it seems like there was more damage under the surface of the market than the closing numbers will really show.

A few random thoughts here...

#1)  About a third of my main watchlist was down over 4% today.  This is not the list I follow going into each session for possible buys, but it is the list I use to compile the strongest stocks in the market and go through each night looking for setups.   That type of number is not a good one for the overall health of this market going forward.   This was also the worst breadth day we've seen since March 10.

#2)  A number of leading stocks (BIDU, HMIN, MELI, OPEN, SOHU, SINA, LULU) were hit hard today and broke short-term moving averages.  I never like seeing this and it usually indicates the market at least wants to pause or consolidate a bit.

#3)  I can't remember seeing more stocks that have taken off for one reason or the other (mainly earnings related) so quickly give their gains back and in such a strong manner.   Maybe I am biased because I still hold ACOM (and have seen my 25% gain shrink to 10%) but when you see names like NTGR, PPO, VOCS and others give gains back so quickly at the first sign of market weakness (and it's not like the market was down 2-3% either of the past two days) it is worrisome.  

I posted on Twitter mid-day that I thought the 2840 level was going to be key for the Nasdaq to defend and technically it did so.   However, the action in individual stocks is certainly bothersome enough that I would take a neutral stance on this market.   Today was the first sign of distribution we've seen in a while, and maybe this move is just a shakeout.   A move below 2800 on the Nasdaq, however, and all bets are off.  Be careful right now. 

I titled this post "at a crossroads" because I though it was appropriate for the market but also for this blog.   Over the past few months, I have been actively debating and questioning whether the work I put into this thing is worth what I am getting out of it.  I really don't know what is going to happen, but my guess is that things will change in some way over the next few months for Chartswingtrader.com.  

If you read this blog daily and have time to answer the following questions, please email me or leave comments on this page - I really would like some feedback to help me answer some questions I am having going forward.   Please be honest as well - my feelings really won't be hurt.   I would rather know what people really think than be told what people think I want to hear.   Thank you - I appreciate your time.

#1)  Do you find Chartswingtrader.com to be a useful website in your stock trading?  Is it part of your daily trading routine?

#2)  What do you find most useful on the website?

#3)  What do you find least useful?  What could you "do without"?

#4)  If you could make any changes to the website, what would they be?   How could the website be improved?

#5)  Would you consider paying a small fee each month ($10-20) or a bigger yearly fee ($75-$100??) for more specific guidance, ideas and advice on trading and the markets in general? 

#6)  Would your trading be affected at all if the daily summaries on Chartswingtrader.com ended?   Would your trading be affected if the weekend videos ended?

Good luck Wednesday - again, caution is very much warranted here.


Anonymous said...

WRT the videos, it is a very rare situation when I watch a video on ANY trading blog. Based on prior experience, I just can't afford 15-30 minutes on what at best turns out to be 5% relevant to my work. And what if there was something interesting in that post? If I want to refer to it I have to wade through the video again? Not for me.

Here's an example of a presentation with the same content as your videos but much more useful to me.
A simple list of annotated charts. That way I can focus on the ticker/cap size/pattern of interest to me and bookmark it for future reference.

Just a suggestion. I do enjoy your observations.

Mac said...

Thanks for your comments - that's the sort of stuff I am wondering about.

Anonymous said...

#1 - I like to see what you are thinking and compare it to my thoughts, although if it were not there, I like an old friend I would miss it, but would carry on just the same.
#2 - Enjoy your list of stocks to watch, and like to see how many I have on my list that match yours.Although I play the stocks based on my interpretation of the charts.
#3 - I can't say there is anything least useful, although the site enjoyable and very often informative, I can live without it...
#4 - maybe use tabs to go directly to the info that i want rather than have to listen to the whole video. As previous comment stated, chart with notes, much more time efficient than listening to whole video and probably quicker to make.
#5 - At this point although I enjoy your views and comments, not enough substance to pay for...I always thought you did this for your own discipline (sp?)...sort of like 'I have to review market and stocks because people are depending on this" ..so it forces you to stay on top of things, otherwise one can get lazy and not be on top of market everyday.
#6 - Again, although I like the site, it would have little bearing on my actual trading...and yes I would probably miss it for a while, until I find a different routine to replace the time spent on CST (hopefully looking at more charts on my own)

This is as honest as I could be, hope it helps. Sorry about the Penguins....and Crosby (hope he comes back as effecive as beofore)


marc said...

I will email you my thoughts but in the meantime FEIC looks like the next ACOM for tomorrow

Anonymous said...

thank you for all the job you have been doing. I usually check the IBD market wrap at night then look at your site, if i have the time. You can continue updating us with your twitter acct. With regards to paying for access, i don't think that will help me.

PreparedInvestor said...


I have been visiting your website for the past 2 months. I do come here 3 or more times a week because I like it. Having said that here is the feedback.

The info I find useful is that the second opinion that I get on the market in general besides mine. I find the stock screens helpful.

What I would like more:

Since you have alluded to Stockbee often, some of the indicators that Pradeep talks about like Breadth thrust can be charted and highlighted at the market turning points. Similarly other indicators that help to navigate the markets.

You have included stock screens already, but if you can categorize them for day trade or swing trade or RSI2 or Breakout, etc. then the advice is more actionable for readers.

Coudy said...

#1)yes, daily routine

#2)your ideas, your thoughts


#4)no changes



Anonymous said...

hi mac
this is not the answer to your questions.

im thinking if i may start gathering longs again today (4may), and of course, the condition is dow doesnt drop another 30~45points after the 1st hour. i will give up the 1st hour.


Anonymous said...

hi mac

#2 i wanna answer this question 1st, your vids are the greatest part. million times way better than read any books u just carry me to another level that i might have to spend months to understand the core of trendlines and certain patterns.

based on your vids i found myself easier to read the other geometry web (also technical analysis webs).

u great leader imho.

Matthew said...

1) It is part of my daily routine. We often arrive at the same conclusion and because are styles are similiar it reassuring to hear you state it again

#2) your brief market description. great work you did plotting stockbee Market monitor and your pcf for pocket pivots were brialliant

#3) Videos, to long as other posters said a list would be more efficient.

#4) The stock is really your opinion and we value it. When you went through that tough patch of shorting the market in 2010 i think we all felt for you as we went through or went through same thing and emotions struck a cord. That said i would look to post your opinion as efficiently as possible. Also if you are going to post trades post real time or dont post them. to say you have 3 longs is pointless and brings integrity into question. you have twitter set up i think its to your advantage to use it real time.

5) If you want to charge i believe you have to post and log all your trades. A bit of success would bring members. I am a serious swing trader so instructional content would not be enough for me to pay.

#6) No the weekend videos have no impact may glance to gleam some candidates and compare vs my list. Someone said it best it is part of my routine to stop by everyday and spend 2 minutes. If it disappeared i would be disappointed but not heart broken.

My suggestion Mark is post trades real time to develop a record if you want to charge. Be careful what you wish for though because the member you attract you may not like.

Also if you want to charge you have to divulge your method i.e. what scans do you run why did you pick this stock etc etc.

Respect your knowledge and opening the black box to reveal the thinking would be valuable. Stockbee is a good example of this.

Have a lot of respect for all you do and hope this helps.


Mpraps (Stockbee member)

Christian said...

#1 - I enjoy seeing your perspective since you've been doing this for a long time.

#2-4 - I don't trade the same stocks you do, I appreciate your overall market sentiment. There are many blogs out there that do this, but one more is always good. You have experience which separates you.

#5 - I think charging for the site would be a big mistake. Maybe you'll get a few subscribers, but is it worth it having most of your readers leave? I mean it's up to you, but making a few bucks from blogging vs trading, I'd choose trading.