Saturday, April 30, 2011

Stock Market Video - Earnings Setups for First Week of May 2011

Hi, traders.  In this video, I review the earnings setups that worked well last week as well as some that I took losses on this week.   I review some potential lessons in terms of identifying which stocks work better when buying gap-ups and also show the stocks reporting this week that look like they have potential to move if the reports are positive.   When you have stocks like ACOM making 25% moves intraday (and I did post that on Twitter Thursday after-hours at $36) you really need to pay attention to earnings releases and what to look for from them.

Hope you find the video helpful and informative.   As always, feel free to email me with questions or comments - I enjoy hearing from my readers.  If you like the videos, please take a moment to leave a review on Investimonials.   

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 4/27/11 - "Be a Little Cautious"

I went into today with almost TOO many long setups in my scans (which always worries me).  Today, I saw very few if any of those setups move higher and I actually saw a good number of stocks lower today.   On a day when the Nasdaq was up 20 points, that is a bit worrisome to me. 

The action overall is obviously very bullish with the Nasdaq and S&P moving to new highs for the year, but I would be cautious at this particular juncture if you're not already aggressively long.   I have had some positions stopped out today and am down to two long positions from six yesterday.   I won't hesitate to put new ones on if they trigger or if they are earnings-related (which continue to work well), but just remember that when the market seems easy, things usually change quickly.   There is nothing wrong with taking some profits as you get them or at least tightening stops on profitable positions as they move higher.   Good luck Thursday.

Monday, April 25, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 4/20/11 - "Good Action"

A few tweets that would have made you money over the past few days...

Posted this one last Thursday after-hours (traded between $6.80 and $7.00 in the AH)...

DTLK is up about 15% since then.

Posted the earnings video Saturday afternoon and this tweet Sunday night.  SOHU and CYOU were up about 10% each today and about 8% and 3% higher than where they opened today respectively. 

Another tweet Sunday night in regards to Sunday's video.   REE up 5% today.  UFPT up 4%.   CCIH and SPRD both up 2%. WAVX is only one that looks bad after today.

To be fair, I also tweeted this today (and have tweeted similar thoughts the past few days).   Not sure what to think about the shiny metal after today - volume was heavier but maybe it still has more room to run as part of a climax move, so I could be wrong. 

No market summary today - I put a heck of a lot of free information out this weekend and I'm taking a break.   Good luck Tuesday.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Stock Market Video - Technical Outlook and Setups for Week of April 25, 2011

Hi, traders and happy Easter - here's the regular video that takes a look at the overall market and some setups that do NOT have earnings this week (well, most of them don't as far as I know).  Things look good overall for the bulls but a bit of a rest would not surprise after two straight opening gaps for the Nasdaq. 

If you have not already done so, you can check out my video from yesterday about earnings setups this week as we have something over 1000 releases over the next five days.

Hope you find the video helpful and informative.   As always, feel free to email me with questions or comments - I enjoy hearing from my readers.  If you like the videos, please take a moment to leave a review on Investimonials.   I appreciate those of you that left a review last week.

Saturday, April 23, 2011

Stock Market Video - Earnings Setups for a Big Week Ahead - 4/23/11

Hi, traders.   Since over 1000 companies report earnings this week, I thought it would be beneficial to go over some of the winners from the last earnings season and also stocks that have potential to gap up going into their reports this week.  None of these are buys before earnings - you must buy after the reaction.   These are stocks that could turn out to be 20-30% gainers based on their patterns (basing, not extended) if they have good reports. They are risky so you must use proper risk management techniques but these plays can give you quick gains of 20-30% if you know what you're doing.   There are a lot of stocks in the video but there are also a lot of earnings reports this week.

Here are the two webpages shown in the video - Finviz (this probably will change by Monday to "this week") and my earnings post from three years ago.

Hope you find the video helpful and informative.   As always, feel free to email me with questions or comments - I enjoy hearing from my readers.  If you like the videos, please take a moment to leave a review on Investimonials.   I appreciate those of you that left a review last week.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 4/20/11 - "Hopeful for Follow Through"

Big gains today on Wall Street, as positive earnings from INTC and VMW pushed the Nasdaq higher and the other indices followed.   Most of the action took place when the market gapped up, and from there it was mostly sideways action on the Nasdaq and S&P.   Volume was heavier.

Technically, today was nice but there still is some work to do for the indices as you can see with the charts below.   The main signal and one secondary signal turned neutral today so signal-wise, the market is neutral across the board.   I would give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls however.
S&P 500

Sector-wise, semis took off nicely on the INTC news but retail had a weak breakout which is a bit worrisome.   Financials continue to lag greatly which is another concern.

As for my trading, I've been on a personal slump here for over a week and it is a bit frustrating.   The three longs today were up but not as much as I would have hoped given the overall action.   RAX could not finish at new highs and closed weak, which is disappointing given the VMW news.   SPRD barely finished higher even with the INTC news.   I passed on some other stocks last night like RHT and CRM after-hours and those both had gains north of 5% today.   TRS flashed a pocket pivot yesterday and I had it on the list after-hours yesterday but I passed as it dropped about $1 in that session.   Today it was up 12%.  I'm just in one of those bad grooves right now where nothing seems to go right.  Hopefully I'll get out of it soon - I'm trying not to press and that's important when you go through a slump, no matter if it's a short or long period of time.  

Certainly today's action was bullish but in the heart of earnings season, you do need to take all technical action with a grain of salt.  It's a perfect environment for whipsaws to occur in and I hope we don't see many over the next week or so.  Both the S&P and Nasdaq closed right below key resistance and we need to see some follow-through tomorrow before an "all-clear" signal can be given.  I would definitely not be shorting the indices right now - stick with charts on the long side that are setting up and hopefully you catch some movers.   Paying attention to the earnings plays makes sense as well.   Take care and good luck Thursday. 

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 4/19/11 - "Still Tough"

We remain in an iffy market right now based on the action today on Wall Street.   Stocks started slightly higher, gave those early gains back, but then did rally through the afternoon and into the close.   This will make the fifth straight session where the Nasdaq closed well off of its lows which normally would be considered bullish.   Today, however, volume was light and no true price progress was made.   A move above the 50 day moving average around 2755 on heavier volume would give me much more confidence in the bulls over the next week or so.

Sector-wise, most ETFs remain under their 50 day moving averages like the major averages with the exception of the transports, retail, and of course commodities.   Gold and silver continue to chug along and silver in particular looks very extended.   With weakness in silver shares over the past week, I continue to wonder if a big pullback is on the horizon for the shiny metals.   We'll see.

I was stopped out of one long today but remain holding two longs and no shorts at this point.  There are a few stocks that are working each day (today REDF and DANG were the big winners) but not all are cooperating - SOHU is a good example from today.   Overall, I think it pays to be cautious here as though I think there is a better chance of us moving higher at least in the short-term from here, it's is not exactly easy pickings from the long side in terms of individual stocks.   Earnings will continue to affect a lot of things and that's where you have to just be patient.   Good luck Wednesday.

Monday, April 18, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 4/18/11 - "Tough"

It looks like we have ourselves a real mess of a market right now.   Today was a bearish and bullish day (depending on how you want to look at it) and your guess is really as good as mine where we head tomorrow.   The day started with a major gap down below key support and the selling continued for most of the morning.   Around 11:00 however, things stabilized and stocks bounced back with the Nasdaq recovering about half of their overall losses.   The action puts a bullish tail on the Nasdaq and other sector ETFs, but overall most indices remain below their 50 day moving averages and the lows from last week.   Again, your guess is as good as mine right now. 

To show you how messed up today was, all you have to do is look at my account.   I entered the day with three longs and two short positions.   I am down to one long position as both shorts were stopped out on the bounce and both longs were stopped early in the session.  Maybe that just says something about my stop management, but I would like to think instead that it shows this market was all over the place and hard to read today.

As I look at the watchlists I showed today, I see a lot of stocks that really didn't do much in the grand scheme of things.   SPRD was a winner on the long side (and I did tweet about that one midday) but that was it.   OCZ and GLNG were really the only long candidates that had major breakdowns today.   Again, kind of weird when you think about the magnitude of the move early today.   From the short watchlist, there were a few that did move lower like TDSC and SGI, but there was also LVS, which triggered early and then did nothing but whipsaw shorts late.   Not fun.

Overall, I think I am going to go into "less is more" mode here and take things slowly.   My main signal is bearish, one of my secondary signals is bearish, but I also think this could have been a type of "shakeout" move today, especially when I look at bigger cap tech stocks like AKAM, OPEN, VMW, and even AAPL.   With earnings season upon us, I am going to focus on those plays mainly and go from there.   Tread lightly and keep an open mind - today was crazy and hopefully the rest of the week will be a bit easier to trade.  Take care.

Saturday, April 16, 2011

Stock Market Video - Technical Outlook and Setups for Week of April 18, 2011

Hi, traders - here's the outlook for the week ahead.  The market basically moved sideways this week as bears and bulls jockeyed for contol of this market before earnings season.   I lean slightly bullish based on the intraday action of the past three sessions, but I am open to anything.  I discuss what to look for this week in the video and look at setups on both sides of the market.   I also discuss what's going on with gold, silver, and oil versus the action in commodity stocks and why it is important to pay attention to those right now.

Hope you find the video helpful and informative.   As always, feel free to email me with questions or comments - I enjoy hearing from my readers.  If you like the videos, please take a moment to leave a review on Investimonials.   I appreciate those of you that left a review last week. 

Monday, April 11, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 4/11/11 - "Taking a Break"

I'm taking a break (from posting, not trading) and will return at some point.   I'll probably share a thought or two on the market over Twitter for those interested.   Good luck this week.

Saturday, April 9, 2011

Stock Market Video - Technical Outlook for Week of April 11, 2011

Hi, traders.  It was an interesting week on Wall Street as stocks just could not bust through resistance after trying basically four out of five sessions and finally pulled back a bit Friday.   Is Friday's action a precursor to more selling, or was it nothing?   Check out the video and I'll go over the indexes and tell you what I think.   As usual, setups on both sides of the market are in the second part of the video.

Hope you find the video helpful and informative.   As always, feel free to email me with questions or comments - I enjoy hearing from my readers.  If you like the videos, please take a moment to leave a review on Investimonials.  

To see the videos in HD, please click "720p" and "Full Screen" on the video bar - HD will be available after processing.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 4/7/11 - "Churning or Consolidation - Tough Call"

We saw a crazy day on Wall Street today, with stocks trying once again to break out of this week-long range and above key resistance on both the S&P and Nasdaq but once again being unable to do so.   The first fifteen minutes of trading today was strong, but when news hit of another earthquake in Japan, stocks sold off hard.   At that point, it looked like we were looking at another failed breakout attempt and perhaps a selloff in the overall market, but the bulls did right themselves a bit.   There was a sharp bounceback, but it never challenged the earlier highs and stocks chopped their way through the rest of the session, closing smack-dab in the middle of their range for the fifth straight session (odd I think).  Volume appears lower.

The markets appear to be in a very interesting technical position here in that they continue to fail when attempting to breakout above key resistance but also fail to break down or even pullback a bit which is a positive.   Maybe this is the consolidation that we've needed and one of these attempts will be the one that takes the market higher.   In general, it seems to be a market that is confused and not sure what it wants to do.   I would imagine a break of this current five-day range would lead to a significant move in that direction.  
The highs and lows of today's session can be used as support and resistance levels from here.

The breadth streak that I've been talking about stretched to its sixteenth straight day today, which is longer than any stretch I've recorded since this rally starts in September of 2010.   Maybe it keeps going, but I continue to worry about this and still have the thought of a sharp shakeout in the back of my mind.   What's interesting to me is that throughout this entire bounce we've only had one day of real strength in terms of # of breakout - March 18.   That normally would be a signal of a weaker rally.

I made one trade today, entering SHZ this morning.   Right now, it looks good.   I also entered a QID position last night after-hours, so I am short via two positions and long via one.   At this point, I am kind of upset with myself that I did not make more money this week as there continue to be lots of movers day to day, and today was no exception.   Last night, DBLE flashed a pocket pivot and my scans picked it up.  I had it on my watchlist, but never entered early on.   It was a big mover today but without me in it.

Charts from Telechart, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

It's hard to trade with a full-time job - any trades I make during the day are on break time and usually over my phone.   I try to do things after work and can enter after-hours, but that is by no means perfect either.  There's not a whole lot I can do about it, but it is frustrating from time to time to miss out on entries.   In some cases, however, I am not going with what I see as well and I need to work on that - I can't use "working" as an excuse for passing up good opportunities.

Keep your options open right now as the market doesn't seem to know what it wants to do yet.   There remain a number of nice long setups out there that are worth watching, and we've certainly seen many breakout moves work well this week.   I do have two short positions but I wouldn't call myself bearish - they are more like hedges for any potential downside we may have because I still think that's a possibility.   Good luck Friday.

 *** Here are the setups...

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 4/6/11 - "Churning Action???"

According to William O'Neil, churning is when "a great deal of trading volume occurs but poor price progress results."   Based on Nasdaq volume today and over the past few days, I believe that we are seeing some churning in this market, especially today.   The market started the day with a gap-up and stocks did rally further from there for the first half hour of trading.   They slowed at that point, however, and fell throughout the morning, giving up all of their gains on the Nasdaq.   Stocks did bounce a bit in the afternoon but the Nasdaq could never get above the key 2800 level on the bounce.   Volume appears that it will be higher.

Technically, it's possible the market is consolidating sideways here, as very little price progress has been made the past four sessions (more like six sessions actually).   My only problem with this being consolidation is that the market has been higher in each of those four session only to close off their highs.   We really haven't "pulled back" and maybe that's a good thing and shows how strong the market is right now.   

However, I keep coming back to the churning action as well as the "breadth streak" (15 days after today's action) that I've been harping on the past three or four days as reasons to be very cautious here.  I am not overly bearish or anything - I am just cautious as I think we're in a market where it will be very easy to be whipsawed buying new longs.   Markets can't go up forever and when they rest, they either do it in a choppy manner or a calm manner.   So far, this is looking more like we're in for a choppy consolidation, as I think the calm pullback would have already taken place and passed.

Leaders were also weak today and a number sold off on heavier volume.  There were not a ton of breakdowns technically, but many look a bit toppy after today which should also be worrisome.  Names like PANL, MON, PNRA, OPEN, APKT, BIDU, and BEXP are worth checking out here - notice the heavy volume and in some cases breaks of key moving averages.

I made two trades today - one short and one long.   As most of the stocks on my watchlist were set to gap up, I didn't chase any early on.  BLTI was the big winner from last night's video, making a breakout move of 20% today.   TISI was up 5% and I highlighted that as a pocket pivot buy last night as well.   The stock I entered long (ROYL) had a quick pop intraday and that's when I entered.   Unfortunately, it crapped out from there and I ended up being stopped out for a 4.7% loss (much larger than I normally take).   Not a good trade in general and I continue to get lured by the potential huge pop in these thin oil stocks rather than the risk and unpredictability that defines them.

I posted on Twitter several times over the past few days that several stocks were looking parabolic and climactic, so I did take one of those (TZOO) as a short today from $82.30.   I am up about 5% in this right now and it was a bigger position than ROYL so it wasn't all bad today.  I was actually surprised it was available to borrow. Based on volume, today looks like it could be a significant top and I may hold this one awhile.   We'll see.

Charts from Telechart, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Overall, I would say just remain careful here.   If you have a number of gains in positions, you may want to tighten your stops a bit up and trade smaller sizes when starting new positions.   If we do see some quiet action where stocks actually do pullback a bit instead of gapping up and then giving it all back, it would be a good sign for the health and sustainability of this rally.   Let's hope that happens.  Good luck Thursday.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 4/5/11 - "Breadth Streak Continues, But Lots of Nice Charts"

I was very busy today and couldn't write a post, so here's a quick video.   The positive breadth streak is now at fourteen days and I continue to believe we are going to see either a shakeout session or a two to three day pullback, but there are enough nice charts out there that the whole streak may not matter. 

In the video, I go over stocks that have consolidated a bit here and that I would consider at this point.  Ideally, I would rather wait but how often do we get what we want in the market. Good luck Wednesday.

Monday, April 4, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 4/2/11 - "Thirteen and Counting - Rest is Needed"

We saw a slow day today on Wall Street, with both the Nasdaq and S&P ending the day flat and volume coming in a good bit lower overall.   It does look like breadth will be positive once again, which puts us at thirteen days and counting for the streak I have discussed for the past few posts.   I continue to believe this market will either have a sharp, one-day shakeout this week or a three to four day pullback that will be slower and more controlled in nature.   I remain in cash and will be looking to buy that pullback, hopefully into the 9 day or 50 day moving averages.  

Although I do remain hesitant to reestablish longs right here for swing trades, there were quite a few movers that were discussed in the weekend video (posted Friday night).   COOL was up 19%.  AXK was up 14%.  MCP was up 13%.  VHC was up 10%.  REDF was up 7%.  MERC was up 6%.  MPEL was up 6%.  REE was up 5%.  

To be fair, I discussed in the video that I didn't know how smart chasing a lot of these names would be and that I would much rather have them pullback a bit and then get aggressive, but if you're a day trader that can watch the market closely all day, these stocks should have made you some nice change today.   For me, they were nothing since I work full-time. 

We'll see what tomorrow brings, but for the sake of the bulls' long-term health, hopefully it brings a slow pullback.   There remain a lot of strong charts out there, but most are extended and need rest before entering, so again, be careful chasing here unless your time frame is short.   Take care and good luck Tuesday.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Stock Market Video - Technical Outlook Heading into April 2011

Hi, traders.  We did see a strong week on Wall Street but I am hesitant to chase this market at this point.   The past three days could have been some churning action on the Nasdaq and breadth is at a stretch where typically pullbacks occur.   There are a LOT of nice charts out there and I do go over them in the video, but for now I will wait for a pullback before reentering longs.   All of this is discussed in the video.

Hope you find the video helpful and informative.   As always, feel free to email me with questions or comments - I enjoy hearing from my readers.

To see the videos in HD, please click "720p" and "Full Screen" on the video bar - HD will be available after processing.