Saturday, February 12, 2011

Stock Market Video - Weekend Summary with Indices, Earnings Plays, and Long Setups - 2/11/11

Hi, traders - You tube is letting me post longer videos so I put everything together this week as one.   Hopefully it is not TOO long.  Part one looks at the indices, part two looks at recent earnings plays, and part three looks at setups for the week ahead.

Hope you find the video helpful and informative.   As always, feel free to email me with questions or comments - I enjoy hearing from my readers.

To see the videos in HD, please click "720p" and "Full Screen" on the video bar - HD will be available after processing.


10 comments:

Esther said...

Excellent presentation. The 24 minutes flew by. Thanks.

Carmine Robert La Mura said...

HI ! thank you for your analysis!
Excellent format!

richard0028 said...

Great video Ryan, really accretive. Have been playing the earnings beats (buying after breakout) and I agree is working well for most, not all.

Anonymous said...

Great video, thanks for taking the time to record. Could you explain what the 80% relates to on the long term timing model?

Mac said...

Thank you everyone - I hope they help.

The 80% number is a ratio - number of stocks up 25% in certain period of time vs. number down 25% in certain period of time. Check out Pradeep's Market Monitor for more info.

Basic thing that I notice is that for so long that ratio has been steady around 80%, and now you see it fall a bit and not bounce right back up into that area. Maybe it will this week, but that shows some weakening of this rally in my opinion, especially because the same thing occurred on other time frames. Hope this helps.

kunal00 said...

great job thanks for all you do!

Pradeep Bonde said...

Good video. You are right breadth divergences all over the place.

B7 said...

Great video. And interesting too.

With regard to the earnings trades, it really doesn't have to work every time. Using a stop loss prevents large losses, and letting profits run tends to make wins big. A 50% (or even 25%) success rate can be very profitable.

Also, I read that people's reaction to earning is not determined by the size of the difference between expected and actual results. Missing or beating earnings by just 1 cent can be just as important as 50 cents.

I think other factors may be more useful. As you mentioned short interest could by very helpful. Other stock metrics such as float, market cap and institutional ownership may be useful too.

Anonymous said...

B7

Using a stop loss on an earnings play wont help if you get a huge gap down

Mac said...

Thank you Pradeep - glad to hear you are seeing the same thing.

Thanks Kunal.

Thanks B7 - the only thing that makes some of the earnings plays difficult is that if you are dealing with a small float, they can move against you so quickly that even with stop losses, you can take large losses.

Now with bigger caps, it is a bit easier to buy a gap up and then just put a stop below the gap. Actually, easier said than done sometimes, but you get the idea.