Thursday, January 13, 2011

State of the Stock Market - 1/12/10 - "Potential Consolidation"

Not a great day today on Wall Street, as though the losses were not heavy, the intraday action was somewhat bearish.   The market started the session flat but did move higher in the morning until lunchtime.   From there, we saw a steady decline into the close, and only a late rally in the last fifteen minutes prevented stocks from closing at their lows for the session.   Volume looks like it will be heavier on the Nasdaq giving it a distribution day.   One came off the running total today, so it would take a few more before real worry should start.

Technically, no damage was done today and some consolidation after a nice day yesterday is normal.   However, I did not like the intraday action of the past two days and as such, I am watching things a bit closer on the indices for potentials signs of a correction.  So far, I don't see any, so I remain long.   I think that remains the best strategy until clear signs of weakness develop.

After today's session, I hold five long positions, as I was stopped out of one (LULU) this morning at $71.37, giving me a 1.37% loss.   I entered this after-hours on Tuesday, but it didn't follow through much yesterday after gapping up and when it broke yesterday's low, I was out.   This still may move higher, but the best earnings-related plays take off right away, so I don't have a problem with the stop being hit.

My other positions all look pretty good, with one up over 9% today and the others consolidating well.   One position I have been posting about for a week or so now (IDT) sold off after seeing some early follow-through, and I didn't like that action.   I want to see some buying tomorrow or I will likely be out.   Others that I think are worth watching right now include BORN (posted here on Monday) and the stocks posted below.

BORN
 EXPR
 HTHT
 KH
 MGIC
 MMYT
Charts from Telechart, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

Overall, we'll have to watch if the afternoon selloff today means anything, but it may just be intraday consolidation.   No real warnings signs are presenting themselves yet, so it pays to stay long until they do.  Good luck Friday.

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