Monday, April 5, 2010

State of the Market - 4/5/10

We saw another up day to start the week today on Wall Street, as stocks climbed in strong fashion for the first hour and a half of trading.   From there, however, things got rather boring and the action was slightly lower and tight.   It would have been nice to see momentum grow throughout the day, but that's just how it's been for a while now - most of the action takes place early and then things stagnate.   Based on totals around 3:30, volume was absolutely pathetic, but you know the drill by now - volume doesn't really matter anymore.   Maybe people were still enjoying the holiday.

Technically, the S&P and Russell 2000 broke to new highs today which is nice to see, but the Nasdaq did not follow suit.  Right now, commodities are the ones leading the market higher and tech is lagging just slightly.   Watch semis however as they are very close to clearing key resistance and a breakout there (if it holds) could get the Nasdaq back to its leadership role.   Speaking of commodities, oil spiked again today, putting in consecutive gaps on the USO chart and looking very extended in the short-term.   Gold was not up as much however.   As the dollar closes in on what should be support, I wouldn't be surprised to see a quick pullback soon in the commodity sector.

I made one trade today, entering AIG at $35.26.  I've been burned so often the past week by whipsaws on breakouts that I wanted to wait until later in the session before taking any shots at longs.  Didn't really matter however - it did nothing but drift lower after I entered and based on my recent luck, I would not be surprised to be out of this tomorrow.  It was probably too obvious of an intraday breakout.  From the video last night, LVS had a great session, closing up around 9%.   I did not chase early and therefore missed out on that one as it gapped up.  BEE had a nice session and was on my watchlist, although I did not include it in last night's video.   Besides that, not much moved a whole lot, at least the stocks I was watching.   Some names I will be watching for tomorrow include SGI, OPLK, CSIQ, and GFRE. 

Story remains the same - longs seem to be the only play right now and the market seems like it will never go down.   My gut is still telling me this is getting too easy (unfortunately not for me, but for the overall market) but until we get a clear sign, I am not making any bearish moves.   If more longs show up, I will cautiously play them but don't plan on going crazy.   Good luck Tuesday.

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