Monday, April 19, 2010

State of the Market - 4/19/10

Short summary today because I have a lot of things to do around the house this evening.  It was a choppy and volatile day on Wall Street - one that I would consider not very bullish but also not very bearish (if that makes any sense).  The day started out slightly higher, but a little after 10:00, the selling took hold once again and stocks fell into the lunch hour, with things looking very poor overall considering the selling we saw Friday.   However, the market was able to right itself at this point, moving sideways for a few hours before rising around 2:00 into the close.   The S&P finished slightly higher, while the Nasdaq finished slightly lower, but both finished well off their lows, which is bullish.   However, volume was much lower today and the overall it wasn't that strong of a bounce back given Friday's selling.

Technically, the S&P was able to test its 20 day moving average this morning and bounced off of it, which is good.  The Nasdaq did not sink that far but did bounce off a trendline starting at the beginning of February.  Based on today, I would still have to say the uptrend is intact.   Perhaps the morning swoon got enough bulls to throw in their temporary towels for this market to continue back up.   I think it is really to early to say.  But if we don't take back more of Friday's losses tomorrow and instead just sit for a few days, I think the picture looks more bearish, especially if we break today's lows.   Overall, I would say I am pretty neutral on things - not looking to short but not seeing too many longs of interest. 

I am still under the belief that this week will be a difficult one to trade with earnings and other news items taking precedence over any technicals right now.  I made no trades today as I would rather wait a few days to see what happens here. Sometimes that's the best play and I feel it is right now (unless you're a daytrader).   Good luck Tuesday.

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