Thursday, April 1, 2010

State of the Market - 4/1/10

Quick comments for today - my streak of picking stocks that put in major reversals right after I enter them continued today, as I made three trades, all of which were stopped out.   I entered two earnings trades last night after hours - XRTX at $18.73 and CNAM at $10.23.   Both opened OK, but soon fell and I was out of XRTX at $18.69 and CNAM at $9.97.   I also entered CCME on the morning pop at $14.28 as it came on very heavy volume.  This also fell almost immediately afterward and I was out of that at $13.98.   So not a very fun day for me - just no strength or follow-through on names that started well.   The only positive was that CISG (which I still hold in the IRA) was up a bit today(4%).   My "addiction" to China names is killing me.

I saw some nasty action today in many stocks (some of which had earnings catalysts that should have pushed them highs) and this makes me think we could be setting up a meaningful pullback very soon.   I have given plenty of longs chances to move the past few weeks, and very few have done so.  Most have reversed lower.   There is a very good chance I am picking the wrong ones, but at the same time, I see this action in the ones I don't pick for the most part as well.   Something still doesn't seem right to me.  The intraday market action was certainly not very bullish either.

I'll try to be back this weekend but I am done with longs for the foreseeable future, as I just can't seem to make any progress with them - I am obviously missing something in regards to my selection process.   Sometimes instead of spinning your wheels, it just makes sense to turn the car off and do nothing, and that's where I am at as of now.   Take care and have a blessed Easter holiday.

4 comments:

Doctor Stock said...

Your hesitations and conclusions are great... cautiously bullish is my market momentum call right now and it has proven true. As for China, I'm not really into eating with chopsticks, so I don't dig in much right now!

Anonymous said...

I thought I was alone on that loser picking streak the past week or so.
All mine Thursday came through though, oddly enough. Trouble is, I don't know why.
Enjoy.

NYC Trader said...

Mac- Break outs are not working. Try to play dip/support buys with tight stops.Also forget China names, go with some boring names for swing.

Mac said...

Agreed NYC - it takes me so long to finally realize these things and then do something about it. My problem is the scans I use don't pick up the slow, low-beta plays, so I am kind of stuck until I come up with different scans. Gotta fine tune a bit.