Thursday, March 4, 2010

State of the Market - 3/4/10

We saw another light-volume trading session today on Wall Street, but it was a positive one, as stocks fought off a little early selling to finish near their highs for the day and with gains. They started higher at the open, but it was quickly sold off around 10:00. Stocks righted themselves from there, consolidated through lunchtime, and started to climb higher as 2:00 approached. They moved up nicely in the final forty-five minutes of trading to finish with some gains. Volume as I mentioned earlier was very low, but it has been all week, at least on the S&P.

Technically, I said yesterday we are either consolidating or churning here and I still think that holds true, although today's action makes me think maybe we can move higher from here. The main problem is that we are back to being quite overbought, so I would like to see further rest here but I don't know if we'll get it. You just have to ride the trend I guess until you see clear signs it is ending, so I am not going to try and anticipate a big pullback here. It certainly could happen, especially with a bad jobs number tomorrow, but I will wait for it rather than guess.

I am still holding my two long positions in AMCF and NFP, but didn't make any other trades today. I am up slightly in both - no big gains yet however. I am still a little hesistant to get more aggressively long with the overbought conditions but if opportunities present themselves, I'll take them I guess. I am watching CFSG, USEG, CPSL, THM, and SEED for possible entries on strength.

That's it for me - I really don't have much else to say. It's been a pretty slow week overall although there have been moves in some individual stocks to keep traders busy. We'll have to see what the jobs number does to trading tomorrow. Good luck Friday.


bmbull said...

Mac, you would probably know: In IBD's eyes, has there been a follow-through day yet off the early Feb. lows?

I know they're pretty liberal in their FT calls, since they don't want to have a bull move start without one, but I don't recall a day that would have qualified in my mind.

Just curious.

Mac said...

They did count the move by the Nasdaq on as FTD but it was less than the 1.7% they usually like and I never liked putting the market in "rally" mode when only on the indices followed-through.

To be honest, I stopped subscribing to the IBD website this past November. I don't know if it the HTF or what, but the traditional CANSLIM style is much tougher these days, and 2009 was a rough year for their market calls.

bmbull said...

Thanks for the info. As far as that goes, I'm not sure that many 'systems' work all that well in this all-over-the-place environment.