Monday, March 29, 2010

State of the Market - 3/29/10

We saw a slightly higher session today on Wall Street, but overall the action was rather listless as stocks traded in relatively narrow ranges and moved basically sideways with both the Nasdaq and S&P finishing near the middle of their intraday ranges.   Volume appears to be a good bit lower than last week's totals.

Technically, not much changed today from what I discussed in last night's video.  Friday's lows are important short-term support levels on both major indices and if those are broken, I still think we test at least the 20 day moving averages.   I don't know if we'll get much lower than that, however, as 1150 should act as strong support on the S&P.   There would be nothing wrong with a little rest up here. 

The dollar took a little dive today and after today's action, the possibility of an island top being put in on UUP is a possibility.  Not saying it is going to happen, but the dollar certainly doesn't look quite as strong as it did last week.   Maybe it's just a little pullback from overbought conditions - we'll have to wait and see.

No trades for me today - I watched the open but didn't see too much moving, at least much that was on my watchlist.   There were some movers out there - CSIQ and CYD were two stocks that had nice moves today.   Believe it or not, I actually had the chart of SERV up on my computer at my lunch - it showed up in my "top ten movers" screen as soon as my quote screen appeared and I checked it out.  At that time, it was already up about 50% in about ten minutes (from $2.20 to $3.30), so I didn't have any plans to chase it.  It did form a beautiful flag from there however and then broke out again at $3.30 around 12:30.  It moved up an amazing $4 from there in about an hour (about 120%) - crazy action.   My lunch is over at 12 so I didn't see it and there is realistically no way I can say I would have entered it then, but it is fun to think about.  

I think this week may be a slow one as the holiday weekend is approaching, but it could have a slight upside bias due to window dressing for quarter one.   We may see some more action like we saw today - positive but not overwhelmingly impressive.   I'll go through my scans tonight and hopefully can find some long candidates, but I am not in a rush and will not force things.   Sometimes boring, lower volume markets are the ones that can get you in trouble.   Good luck Tuesday.

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