Sunday, March 21, 2010

Stock Market Video - Weekend Market Summary - 3/21/10

Hi, traders, here's a few videos for the upcoming week. Part one looks at the overall market and some of the breakdowns that I saw Friday that have me a bit more worried as of now. I've been saying ad nauseam that we have been long overdue for a pullback and maybe we are about to have it. Part two looks at a few stocks I will be watching this week - two short, four long - but overall I have the feeling I won't be doing much trading this week. I sense we are either going to pullback this week ( and if that's the case it's too early to buy) or just chop around sideways with high volatility (great for a day trader but not for me).

(These videos will be in HD after processing - click "full screen" and "720p" for this option)

Here are the stats from the stocks shown in last week's video. These are only the stocks that I said I would be watching closely during the week (video #2) and not the stocks that I said needed rest but were worth putting on your watchlist (video #3). As always, these percentages represent the week change and not what you would have made or lost by trading, as entries and exits would likely be much different. What I see in this chart is that although the market wasn't down overall this week, under the surface the strongest stocks are getting distributed in some cases. As you saw in the above video, a lot of smaller cap momentum stocks are breaking down and that is not good. I've also been talking for about two weeks now on the daily summaries that stocks just don't seem to moving up or following-through on any moves they have, and this chart proves that as well. I only made two trades this week - one from this week - and was not hurt badly on either. Hopefully you fall into that boat as well.

Entry Exit G/L
JAZZ $11.35 $12.46 9.78%
BID $29.00 $29.59 2.03%
STC $13.46 $13.53 0.52%
CMFO $6.81 $6.80 -0.15%
DEER $11.13 $11.05 -0.72%
CISG $25.51 $25.28 -0.90%
NEP $8.69 $8.60 -1.04%
TSRA $20.23 $19.99 -1.19%
GRFE $11.88 $11.43 -3.79%
RINO $23.80 $22.00 -7.56%
CYD $15.81 $14.50 -8.29%
CFSG $15.44 $14.01 -9.26%
CEU $6.20 $5.62 -9.35%
NLST $4.42 $3.99 -9.73%
UCTT $9.25 $8.35 -9.73%
KNDI $5.12 $4.53 -11.52%
XTXI $9.14 $8.04 -12.04%
LIWA $9.40 $8.15 -13.30%
SNIC $10.57 $9.08 -14.10%

Good luck this week.


Jeremy said...

Hi Mac. Thanks for your effort on the videos. As always, lots of insights and helpful. I have a newbie question here, the stock market has been somewhat negatively correlated to the performance of USD. What would be the rationale for such an inverse relation? and do you think this inverse relation will continue going forward? thanks again

Mac said...

Hi, Jeremy. For a long time, the dollar went down which caused the market to go up. Actually, in 2009, that was probably the biggest reason the market went down. That's just economics - if the value of the dollar goes down, it takes more of them to buy anything, even stocks. People put money in stocks as an inflation hedge (lower dollar, not necessarily inflation - there is a slight difference). I still believe most of the 2009 rally was simply a weak dollar rally.

Now for 2010 for the most part the dollar and the market have gone up - to be honest, I don't know why.