Thursday, February 18, 2010

State of the Market - 2/18/10

I have to leave soon so this will be quick, but we saw no rest today on Wall Street, as stocks moved sideways for much of the session but climbed a good deal higher around 2:00 and ended another session with impressive gains. The Nasdaq looks like it will close several points above its 50 day moving average while the S&P will likely close right (and I mean right) at it. Same deal with most sectors - financials and semiconductors are right at their 50 days, while a few others (IYR, RTH) are slightly above theirs.

I did nothing once again today as I don't see many attractive setups on the long side. In addition, volume was once again very low today and that has me hesitating here. I am having a really hard time putting the rational part of my brain aside and just buying whatever - this was the problem in 2009 as well. For some reason, I just can't do it. We are now also quite overbought on the metrics I use and so I have to just wait patiently for the market to rest a bit and for some setups to form. I am completely aware that this probably won't happen and we'll continue to grind higher on very light volume much like we did in 2009. For some reason, however, I just can't chase here.

Good luck tomorrow - maybe I'll find some long setups in my scans tonight. I am not bearish here and am not shorting, but I can't get overly bullish here for the reasons stated above. Maybe someone can convince me differently and "straighten" me out. Take care.


bmbull said...

This market is nuts.

John said...

It pains be to say it but get used to Dow 10,000 for a long time.