Sunday, January 24, 2010

Some Weekend Thoughts - No Man's Land

I was going to do a video this weekend but after going through my scans, I don't really have much to say or show. I really do think we are in kind of a "no-man's land" here - too late and risky to get short here, and too much uncertainty and news coming (i.e. earnings, State of the Union) to play an oversold bounce. We certainly are stretched here (McClellan is at -271, the lowest since October 30) but oversold can always become more oversold, especially if Wall Street continues to frown upon what comes out of Washington or if the earnings this week are disappointing.

If you are really itching to try and catch a bottom here, I would watch 1080 as an area where the possibility of a bounce is strong. I could see a sharp break of that area to get shorts pulled in, and then a reversal back above it. That's just a guess though, and guesses aren't good enough for me to get heavily involved in the market. I will likely be taking it easy for a few days until things get straightened out, as again, I kind of see swing traders in "no-man's land" here.

My short watchlist is growing by the day, but I need them to form bear flags or bounce up into former support levels as they are currently way too stretched to the downside, so there are no setups ready on that side of the market yet. I will be watching several stocks this week just to see how they act more than anything - former momentum plays like SEED, HPJ, and CAGC. I'll also be watching stocks that look to have held up well the past week like MSPD, RNWK, BEXP, and MAPP. It is these stocks that remain strong during nasty sell-offs that you need to pay attention to, for if this is a short-lived sell off and we bounce right back up like we did in 2009, these guys will likely be the new leaders.

Don't know if this little summary helps anyone out there, but sometimes the best thing to do in the market is sit back and watch others fight it out, and I think for the next few days, it might be best to do just that. Take care and good luck in the week ahead.

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