Friday, December 11, 2009

State of the Market - 12/11/09

Here's the short Friday summary for today - the market was up slightly today which on the surface looks good, especially in the face of the strong dollar we saw today. However, it was really only the Dow that was up a decent amount and volume was once again very low and momentum seems to be slowing drastically from where I sit. Because of that and the fact we are quickly approaching the top of this trading range, I am leaning more bearish going into next week.

I made a few trades today - I was stopped out of my TSTC position at $14.85 for about a 3% loss. This is a prime example of the lack of momentum - this stock tried to bounce the past two days from a pullback but couldn't get that frenzied buying going again and when it broke the 9 day moving average, I was out. It might still bounce as it closed off its lows but I have my doubts. I also sold out of SEED at $11.68 for a small 2-3% gain. It spiked today but quickly fell back and seems to be lacking the momentum it had the past few weeks, so I got rid of it. I still am holding VISN in case momentum starts picking up but that is it for the longs.

I put a test position in today with SDS at $36.03 as the lack of momentum is bothering me here. It is hard to put a finger on it, but when I've watched the market this week, things have seemed to be extra slow, even though there have been gains. I am sitting on a small loss right now with SDS and will get out with new highs in the market, but my gut told me this afternoon that it may be time to start thinking about some shorts. We'll see if I am right next week - probably won't be given my luck this year.

Hope everyone has a great weekend - I'll be back Sunday with some thoughts after going through my scans. Take care.


positiontrader said...

Hi Mac!

Could you please have a look at RDN if you get the time. I think this might breakout on Monday. I got in at 6.24 today.

Also nibbled on SRS today. The volume has been pretty weak the last three days. From what I have been reading, almost everyone expects the market to remain strong till the end of the year and then fall back beginning of next year. So, the costanza play would be to expect the market to fall during the holiday season, right?? That's what makes sense to me.

Mac said...

RDN could work well if it gets over the 50 day - has potential to run if the market does likewise.

positiontrader said...

Thanks Mac! I thought the same. Figured that it would be worth the risk to enter a breakout early for a change!

Good Luck tomorrow!