Friday, November 27, 2009

Some Morning Thoughts - Dubai and the Dollar

I have to start by saying that with Thanksgiving, I did not go through any scans yesterday so I don't have a great feel for where we are at at this very moment. With the very low volume so far this week, I didn't think it mattered much anyway. However, today should be an interesting session. Half-day, probably lower volume still, but with some panic thrown in with the Dubai situation - certainly a wild setup.

So what will happen? I don't know. I won't be trading it - I do know that. Asia closed very rough and futures are down big right now, but Europe has rebounded from what I see to actually be positive on the session so seriously, anything is possible. I think as always, the dollar will be the key. This article from Zero Hedge caught my attention - Japan Prepared To Sell Yen To Keep Currency Below 14 Year High Against Dollar. The market has been running on fumes for a while now in my opinion, and one major event that would spike the dollar and put in at least a temporary bottom could crush the overall market, as the falling dollar has obviously been one of it not the key factor in pushing the market continually higher. Is this an event that would do it? I don't know but it bears watching.

Good luck today - a huge gap down on lower volume in a half-day session is not the situation I want to short just because of how volatile things will likely be, but perhaps this will be a turning point in the overall market, especially if it's a turning point for the dollar. Then again, we are in a Costanza market until proven otherwise, so be careful. 1084 is key on the S&P but the 50 day moving average is right below it, and 2137 is the number to watch on the Nasdaq. Interestingly enough, we are set to open right near those numbers. Fun as always.

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