Monday, October 12, 2009

State of the Market - 10/12/09

What a boring day! Stocks tried to make it six in a row today early on as they rose for the first two hours of trading, but from there faded and ended up closing basically flat for the session. Volume appears to be lower once again, as many trading desks were likely quiet for the Columbus Day holiday.

I would have no problem writing a long summary right now, but there really isn't anything to say that I didn't say yesterday, so today's post will be short. Please check out Sunday's post for a detailed description of what I am watching right now. The market bounced right up to those important levels around 1080 on the S&P before reversing and those are still the key numbers (2152-2167 on the Nasdaq) I am still watching the VIX and U.S. dollar for clues as to where we head from here.

I will say that I am considering putting on a few test shorts here with very tight stops (a bit above new highs) as I sense a loss of momentum. A breakout is still certainly a possibility but we are quite overbought in the short-term and the longer the current technical conditions remain in place, the more bearish I start to lean. We'll see I guess - if we breakout and hold it, then I'll look for some longs to play as perhaps the momentum can pick back up. Good luck Tuesday.

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