Monday, September 14, 2009

State of the Market - 9/15/09

This will be a short post because we had a flooding issue at my house when I was at work and I need to get a grip on any possible damage, so that is where my focus will be tonight. Today was another day when the bears showed how weak they are by starting off with a gap low and doing absolutely nothing with it. The opening gap turned out to be the lows for the day as stocks moved steadily higher from there, closing positive on the session. The intraday action was bullish, but volume came in lower than Friday and to see a market move higher on lower volume is not bullish.

The technical picture really didn't change today - both the S&P and Nasdaq are bumping their heads against the top of this wedging pattern/uptrend channel that I showed in the video this weekend. Right now, a pullback certainly would be logical, but as illogical as this year has been, I would not be surprised at all if we bust out of this wedge to the upside and the market really ramps things up. Either option is viable right now so be prepared for either.

In terms of sectors, USO is at a long-term uptrend line, so crude oil bears watching here. The U.S. dollar continues to hold onto the bottom of its channel but just barely. I am assuming one of these will break and then the other will react accordingly and move in the opposite direction. I wish I knew which one would break. The financials are in that possible head and shoulder pattern but just barely - they could invalidate it very soon. That is something to watch as well. Several important individual financials (GS, MS, BAC) finished off their lows today so perhaps that will lead to a breakout in XLF as well.

We had some decent movers today from the video this weekend - ISLN, CHINA, IEC, and OWW all moved up nicely off the levels I showed. I was not able to be by my computer early today so I was not able to play any of these myself, but I hope you were able to catch a few of them. The only real breakdown today was TSPT, so continue to watch the other setups shown in the video as most look good. If for some reason the market breaks above this wedging pattern over the next few days, then these longs should work well. Although the execution and managing of my own trades has been quite poor for various reasons this year, I do believe I am still sharing interesting and profitable setups in each of these videos completely for free. As I rarely even get so much as a "thank you" from readers, I am debating internally how much longer the "free" setup will last.

Good luck tomorrow with your trading - I am off to do some investigating. Take care.

9 comments:

Johnny said...

let me say the first 'thank you!'

Bob said...

appreciate your daily updates and keep them coming. A sincere "thank you" for posting these. You provide great insights and ideas that make me money. Good luck with the flood!!

Amy said...

I just found your blog yesterday, and it looks like some pretty good info to me.

I appreciate all of your hard work, I haven't been trading very long and I think it will be helpful.

Good luck with the water problem.

Shannon

MW said...

A sincere "thank you" for posting all these insightful updates!

Anonymous said...

I have responded once/twice and admit to looking forward to your blog every day. If you have to go the way of fees, then I support you as I have noticed other great sites in the past have done so as well. If you stay free, then I will be here for sure as usual, since following your site for around 6 months or so. Great insights, and TA. Have learned a great deal. Your time is valuable and you should do what you feel is right. Life will continue and hopefully for the better ;>)

ted said...

really like your daily commentary on the market. keep up the great work.
happy trading!

Ylu said...

Thanks. I have been reading your blog every night for the past few months. I am very appreciate your insights to the market, and I did use a few of your setups. Great works!

discogen said...

I also appreciate your updates. They have helped enormously. As regards earning more from your work here, have you considered emailing only notifications of posts with links to your site? Because I get a full update in my inbox I very rarely visit your site, which makes for decreased traffic and advertising revenue. Just a thought.

Mac said...

Thank you everyone.