Sunday, July 5, 2009

Stock Market Video - Weekend Market Summary - 7/5/09

Hi traders - here's the video for the week ahead. I only looked at the indices here tonight because I have a feeling (call it a hunch) that the bulls and whoever else may have helped push this market higher the past three months are not going to give things up so easily. Basically, we are either going to #1) crash through support this week and this correction will quickly pick up steam, or #2) bounce a little that will frustrate the bears and grind us sideways a bit more before correcting in earnest a little later in the summer. I tend to lean toward scenario #2.

Longer-term, I am about 99% sure (never want to be 100% sure in any market) that we are topping here and starting a significant correction. The patterns are there on both individual stocks and the overall indices for this correction to occur. It just might not happen immediately without some last-ditch efforts by the bulls. So basically, my main outlook is that any bounces into the short-term moving averages on stocks or ETFs are shortable and I will wait for a few of these before getting heavily short. Again, this is just a hunch.

I hope at least some of that makes sense. Good luck next week - may be slow once again early on due to the holiday. Take care.

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Anonymous said...

Hey Mac!

Nice job on the blog. If you dont mind me saying/asking, do you think that due to getting stopped out a few times earlier this year in spite of being right, that you are being little scared to pull the trigger these days?? Thanks!

Mac said...

No doubt - the string of small losses I was experiencing even though the stocks eventually acted the way I expected them to did affect me psychologically. I will get over it, but I am just having a tough time jumping back in with both feet. I think I've built up a very high level of distrust for this market and that distrust works on both the bullish and bearish sides.