Tuesday, July 14, 2009

State of the Market - 7/14/09

A slow, choppy day today on Wall Street, as a great earnings report from Goldman Sachs via the U.S. taxpayers was able to push the market up slightly. Stocks fell for the first hour of trading today, but bounced a little before 11:00. By lunchtime, they were up to their morning highs but really couldn't bust through and moved sideways for the rest of the session. Volume appears to be much lighter on the S&P but about even on the Nasdaq as of now.

Technically, the numbers I mentioned yesterday and in the video last night (1800 on the Nasdaq and 911 on the S&P) were not broken through today although the Nasdaq got about as close as you can. OIH and RTH both had little moves today above short-term resistance but nothing overwhelming. Financials didn't do much of anything, much like Goldman. With the S&P right below its 50 day moving average and a year-long trendline, along with the Nasdaq touching the underside of its former uptrend line, I do feel it is imperative for the bulls to take control tomorrow and push this thing through those levels if they are serious about getting a rally going. I don't know if they will be able to or not - I guess much depends on earnings.

I was surprised that Goldman just sat there today when their earnings were released. Perhaps everyone knew already that they were going to be so great (thanks taxpayers) and just passed. Perhaps most of the buying was done yesterday. Overall, it was just a weird reaction. There wasn't a "buy the news" or "sell the news" reaction - it was just "sit there and do nothing". I guess I have to look at today as bearish - not being able to bust through resistance on great news isn't very impressive. I am not locked into that view, but if you watched the video last night, you know this is one particular stock I am watching very carefully for a tell for the overall market.

Going through my scans really quickly, I notice a ton of oil stocks that put in big bounces today. This bears watching because if this group starts coming back, it bodes well for the bulls. That being said, all today did for several of these was take them right back into prime shorting area(CHK and EOG for example), so the bulls have to follow-through tomorrow on these bounces in my opinion.

Not much else to say right now - again, earnings are going to be the focus for a while now and because of that, technicals may take a back seat. ININ was a nice earnings move today but I didn't see it last night. Keep your eyes open after-hours and pre-market - this is where you can catch many big movers and get in before trading on them starts. Here are two links for pre-market and after-hours that I refresh several times a night when I am watching.

Take care and we'll see what tomorrow brings - my gut is that the bulls need to move now or they might not get another chance. Good luck Wednesday.

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