Friday, July 31, 2009

A Few Morning Thoughts...

After going through my scans this morning, I still have a certain uneasiness about this market after yesterday. That Nasdaq chart just looks bad to me and as I said yesterday, a close below 1979 would be very bearish in my opinion. I am not saying the bulls can't take back control today with a nice move that gains those points back that they lost yesterday. I am saying I believe that needs to happen today. For such a perfect scenario on the breakout to have such a weak close is disconcerting from my perspective.

After some extremely wild after-hours trading in the solars last night thanks to FSLR, I am out of my SPWRA position at $31.65 for a 4% loss. That was nowhere near my trailing stop loss around $33, which would have had me at breakeven on the position. However, when it moved $1 higher AH and then reversed like that, down almost $3 from its AH highs and $2 from its closing highs, I thought something was wrong and just cut my losses. Given my luck this week, it may be up today, but I didn't like that action at all, and when I don't, I get out.

I am leaving this afternoon to attend a family birthday dinner so there won't be an after-market post. Because of that, in addition to the way I have managed positions this week, I don't plan on doing much today other than manage my two current positions, AMSC and JDAS. Right now, I am not feeling it and my confidence is still waning as I've seen large paper gains disappear this week when I didn't take quick profits and stocks move without me after being stopped out, seemingly a theme for my trading this year. ANR was the latest to do that - I bought a day early and perhaps didn't give it enough room to move. It was up $2.50 yesterday. Either way, I think a day away would probably be good for me right now to catch my thoughts and regroup.

If you're looking for plays, I do see a few stocks setting up in nice flag patterns - check out ONTY, POL, POOL, MEG, TQNT, TBI, UNTD, SPF, EXEL, OGXI, CISG, ARBA, LEN.B. These would all be dependent of course on the market showing renewed strength today after yesterday's weak close. Hopefully that happens. We'll see. Best of luck and I'll see you this weekend. Take care.

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