Thursday, June 4, 2009

State of the Market - 6/4/09

We had a bounce back session today on Wall Street, as the bulls were able to overcome a flat to slightly weaker open and pushed stocks slowly and steadily higher after lows were put in around 10:00. The gains weren't massive, but they did allow stocks to make back what they lost yesterday. Volume looks to be quite low once again.

Technically, it looks like this week has been mainly some consolidation after Monday's breakout, and since it has come on decreasing volume, the consolidation looks very healthy. The S&P did hold that 930 level yesterday and although it does seem to be pausing right around a year-long downtrend line, the chart looks bullish. 950 will be resistance for the S&P. The Nasdaq continues to lead and made a fresh high today. Financials picked up a bit today but are still lagging overall - between $12.75 and $13 on the XLF looks to be resistance.

As I go through my scans quickly here, I am finally seeing a lot of bullish patterns. Maybe I was just being too picky, but as I looked at my scans just now, I started to get interested. Some stocks that I was watching but that had just gone too fast too quickly have rested the past few days. I am actually kicking myself that I didn't pay more attention to a few of these like CSIQ, which bounced perfectly off of its 9 day moving average yesterday and was up another 23% today. I have a long list right now of stocks I am either interested or about to be interested if they rest just one or two more days. Check out the following stocks:

JST, CVGW, RAX, WX, SIGA, PRGN, ORCC, THC, CTIC, SMRT, JCG, CGA, FRPT, PXP, TGE, SPPI, and MAPP.

All of these stocks are forming bullish flag type patterns and if they break out, then they will likely move to higher price levels. So I will be paying a bit more attention to the market tomorrow and into next week based on these patterns showing up. As long as these patterns keep forming and don't break down, I think it bodes well for the overall market as these are typically continuation patterns.

I will try to do a video if I can tonight to go over these and others, but there is a hockey game on, so I really don't know if I'll be able to or not. Overall, the action of the market the past three days looks bullish based on the technicals, and as long as yesterday's lows aren't broken on heavier volume, the bulls remain firmly in control of this thing. Good luck Friday and go Pens!

2 comments:

Anonymous One said...

Mac,

Continuing from yesterday's comments. Thanks for replying. But would you agree that part of the reason that (in retrospect) 875 looked like a great buy-in opportunity for a swing trade was because of the volume signals. Every time in floated around down to that area, the volume was below average or average?

(BTW, like you, the reason I couldn't pull the trigger either was because of my bearish bias, which I'm trying to overcome by trying to get back to T.A. at its basics. Which is why I wanted to ask you this question about volume.)

Mac said...

Yes, volume was low and that was a good sign. In retrospect, volume was light on the bounces in that consolidation too, and with a few distribution days mixed in, that is probably why I hesitated. But volume definitely was bullish.