Thursday, June 18, 2009

State of the Market - 6/18/09

Although the markets had small gains today, it was overall a pretty slow and boring day on Wall Street, as stocks moved higher for about a half hour before consolidating and moving sideways in a tight range for the rest of the session. There was a late swoon that pulled the indices off their highs for the day and had them finish in the upper-middle of their intraday range. Volume looks to be very much lower than yesterday, although I do not have the final totals.

Technically, a bounce was probably due today, but when you take in the very low volume and the overall gains, it was not that impressive. If you caught the video from this morning, I went over the technical look for the S&P and Nasdaq there, and I encourage you to check it out if you didn't watch it yet. Until the S&P gets over 930, I am not really interested in doing much here, and 930 isn't a magic number. It could even get a bit higher than 930 to form that right shoulder and then fall back down. If we break 950, then I will switch sides and go back to be bullish, but right now I still expect some sideways chop in this area before we head lower.

As I mentioned yesterday, it seems that there has been a subtle change here where the bulls just don't have the firepower anymore to push stocks back up if there is any intraday selling. Today was another prime example of that. We just aren't having strong closes this week and that type of action is typical of a market in correction mode.

There really isn't much else to say - the video went over individual stocks to watch as well so again, check it out. There are quite a few stocks out there that look like they have left shoulders and heads formed on topping patterns - we have to watch over the next few weeks if the right shoulders form or if they rise to new highs and invalidate these potential patterns. That's what I plan on doing - watching from the sidelines until I see a good setup and a clear direction. Tops usually take time to form, and if we are topping here (a distinct possibility) it will likely take a few more weeks. Don't let yourself get chopped up in the meantime, especially in a low-volume summer environment. Good luck Friday - options expiration so be careful.

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