Friday, April 17, 2009

State of the Market - 4/17/09

These options days are turning out to be quite anti-climactic. A slow and boring day today on Wall Street, as stocks started slightly lower, moved sideways for a bit, and then rose steadily right before lunch and into the afternoon. A late swoon caused stocks to finish slightly higher but basically flat for the day. Overall, I don't know if I can put to much stock in the action today since there was relatively tight range intraday. Things remain overall bullish and although we are overbought on any number of measurements, it hasn't mattered yet and I don't want to predict when it will matter. It will soon, but soon could be next week or next month, so it makes it tough to aggressively short here.

I did sit out today and didn't really watch things either. I do notice now that RGR broke out nicely today, which would have been nice if I held on to it. Looking back, I originally said that as long as it held $11, then it was in good shape. I didn't follow my own advice. Sometimes it is good to get out early - SOLR was an example today. I didn't like how it couldn't hold its breakout so I got out early and save myself a slightly bigger loss today. Sometimes though it doesn't work that way and you miss out on a RGR breakout. As I think about things more, I realize that I am just getting scared about taking losses, and by doing so, I am actually giving myself more losses as an overall number of trades. They might not be big losses, but they can add up and also hurt the confidence of a trader. Then as the losses start to build, I get more scared and the cycle continues. I will get a hold of this soon but right now I realize it is affecting me.

I'll be back at some point this weekend, hopefully with a video. Good luck and enjoy the next two days.


seeer said...

One question.
When did SOL breakup? Because I can't see any breakup. :) I do see consolidation, maybe a bull-flag.

Mac said...

I meant SOLR - sorry about that. I got out yesterday because I didn't like how it moved nicely to $7.90 and then fell right away back to its breakout point. It looked like a weak breakout or a possible failed breakout, and today it played out that way as it fell below its pivot point.