Sunday, March 29, 2009

Trying to Get Back in the Swing of Things

It's been quite the busy week for me - moved on Thursday and am still getting adjusted to the workload that accompanies the move. We still don't have our old house totally cleaned out, and I am trying to get some projects done around the new house as much as I can. I really haven't been watching the market at all this week - just didn't have the time to do so. I have gone through my scans just now for the first time in about five days and will share some random thoughts. Take these all with a grain of salt as again, I haven't been watching things too closely.

  • Although volume patterns look like they have favored the bulls recently (higher volume up days and lower volume sell days), the indices have risen to resistance points, particuarly the Nasdaq, that could prove troublesome. After Friday's action, the S&P and Nasdaq are sitting right at their month-long trendlines. A lower open on Monday will cause a break of these trendlines and possibly a test of the 50 day moving averages. Will the bulls come in if we do dip below those trendlines? It would show strength if they did.
  • In addition to the S&P and Nasdaq, I am really going to watch XLF - also sitting right at a trendline. I may focus solely on this and trade it accordingly via FAZ or FAS. If XLF starts breaking down, watch out.
  • We continue to remain overbought but Friday eliminated some of the short-term conditions. We're somewhat neutral overall - just slightly overbought.
  • In terms of individual stocks, I see some decent short setups if we do breakdown. I am watching these for breaks of their trendlines. WFC, for instance, looks like a really good short if it breaks below $15. Others I see are LHCG, CHFC, NRP, PNC, MET, ACM, BOH, HBHC, TE, XOM, SYNA, SIGM, SOHU, and CPLA. I may try one or two of these early next week if we get more selling.
  • I see a few more longs that interest me, but not as many as I would like to see, and especially not as many as I would need to see to believe this is THE bottom for this bear market. Solar stocks (YGE, SOLR) stood out in the scans so watch those carefully to see if they consolidate bullishly. Others that are strong (but may need rest as well) include LZR, PEGA, AU, STEC, STSI, RGR, OCN, DRI, and CSKI. I don't feel very interested in buying here - maybe if we rest a bit more.
I don't know if this will help anyone out there, but I hope to get back into the swing of things as the week progresses. I am returning to work so I will be able to write a bit on my breaks there and watch things a bit more closely. But there is still a lot of housework to do, so if posts remain rather sparse, you will know why. Good luck to all and have a great trading week!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Congratulations! Enjoy your new house! If possible, could you post a oscillator chart in your next posting? Thanks a lot! - Elena