Monday, March 9, 2009

State of the Market - 3/9/09


Drip....drip....drip....drip.....

There really isn't anymore I can say that I didn't say yesterday. Right now we know the faucet is broken and the pipes are in bad shape too. The only question is whether the plumber will come to fix the drip first(option #2 from yesterday's post), or will the pipes just burst and the drip will turn to a waterfall(capitulation - option #1 from yesterday's post). I wish I knew the answer, but I just don't.

I barely watched things today and am still 100% in cash. I will be ready if something happens, but the more this type of action happens, the more likely option #2 I wrote about yesterday comes to fruition where we just continue lower and eventually turn higher but not in a meaningful way and not in a noticeable way. VIX barely moved today. No fear anywhere - just complacency and almost acceptance. Market numbers still aren't extreme enough. I wish I could say something different, but I can't. Good luck tomorrow if you're trading this.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mac I think we'll get some action after the The Mark-To-Market Vote!

Mac said...

Problem with that is that I hear a LOT of people talking about that idea now, so will it really happen? If it was a surprise, maybe, but I don't know that it's a surprise anymore.

Anonymous said...

Mac,
I agree with #2 since a large # of traders are in cash waiting for that capitulation moment. We'll get a stealth bear market rally (baby steps) and most people will miss it. Look at China.