Tuesday, March 31, 2009

State of the Market - 3/31/09

We saw a somewhat impressive bounce-back performance from the bulls today on Wall Street, as a slightly higher open led to higher prices after some consolidation for the first half of the day. Around 1:00, stocks broke out and really took off to the upside. It looked like stocks would close with impressive gains, especially considering the technical damage that was done yesterday. However, there was some selling that came into play during the last hour and stocks finished well off their highs. Volume was lower.

Techincally, the Nasdaq bounced right back up to test its former trendline today that was so powerfully broken yesterday, but the late swoon suggests that maybe it is ready to pullback more. The S&P still has so room to go before it tests its trendline but again, with it finishing in the middle of its range, I don't know if it will get that far.

Right now, I have to admit that I don't have a great feel for things out there and as such, I made no trades once again today. From what I can tell, the market for the past week and a half has been a big up day followed by a big down day followed by a big up day and so on and so on. That's a tough market to trade. I still lean bearish but I would rather wait for the next few days to pass with the mark-to-market thing out there before getting short. A few more days like today and then I may take some shots. Until then, I'll remain in cash. Take care, and if I find anything interesting in my scans (if I get to them) I will try and share.

3 comments:

bmbull said...

And welcome back to the daily grind! You didn't miss much...

Anonymous said...

Good analysis as usual...sometimes the best trade to make is no trade. I appreciate your analysis and take on market, IMO, you have that innate market sense which is essential. Janet

Mac said...

Thanks guys. BMB - I agree that it doesn't look like I missed much at all except a bit of stress. Don't worry - moving took care of that missed stress just fine.