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Saturday, February 21, 2009
Here's the video for the upcoming week. My basic thesis is that we are at oversold levels from which we have bounced over the past six months for at least for a few days due to short covering. So the likelihood that that happens again this week is highly likely. Is it guaranteed? Heck no, and that is why I think if we don't get this bounce soon, then we are just going to break wide open (regardless of the oversold conditions) and have a mini-crash, much like we saw in October. Which of these outcomes occur really comes down to one question - "what is the government going to do?" Traders are waiting for some clarity from the people in charge. Whatever happens on this front will likely determine if we get that short-covering bounce or just fall apart. I wish I knew for sure which it would be. I will be ready on both sides - I put some possible bounce plays in the second half of the video. Good luck next week - I think we all need it.