Saturday, February 21, 2009

Video - Weekend Market Summary - 2/22/09 - Oversold Rally Probable....Maybe

Here's the video for the upcoming week. My basic thesis is that we are at oversold levels from which we have bounced over the past six months for at least for a few days due to short covering. So the likelihood that that happens again this week is highly likely. Is it guaranteed? Heck no, and that is why I think if we don't get this bounce soon, then we are just going to break wide open (regardless of the oversold conditions) and have a mini-crash, much like we saw in October. Which of these outcomes occur really comes down to one question - "what is the government going to do?" Traders are waiting for some clarity from the people in charge. Whatever happens on this front will likely determine if we get that short-covering bounce or just fall apart. I wish I knew for sure which it would be. I will be ready on both sides - I put some possible bounce plays in the second half of the video. Good luck next week - I think we all need it.


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2 comments:

Jeremy said...

thanks Mac for your update, as it is very informative and I learn a lot from your blog.
I am a beginner in trading, and too bad got into this business not at the perfect time, which is quite frustating.
That makes me wonder what happened during the past bull market, was it just the opposite of today, I mean was it so much easier to make profit? How well did you do during those years, if you are willing to share?
Since I am a newbie, I never got a taste of those times. Would appreciate if you could share your experience.
Thanks a lot and GBU

Mac said...

Thanks Jeremy. I started trading around 2004, and at that time, like most traders, I had no idea what I was doing. I messed around with Warren Buffett type strategies for a while, and then finally found charts. It is very possible to lose money in a bull market, especially when you don't know what you're doing, and that was the case for me. I am looking forward to having the experience I have now when (if?)we enter another bull market at some point. But as a trader, you have to pay your dues so to speak. It's a process. I was up around 90% last year, 20% in 2007, but lost money before that. This year I am down about 5% but hope to get that turned around soon. Hope this helps.