Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Stuck in Holding Pattern

I really do wish I had something unique and interesting to say right now, but I don't. The story remains virtually the same as what I wrote this morning. We are just in a tight range here and until the government decides what it wants to try this time to fix this whole financial crisis, my guess is we still just chop around. My longer-term outlook is still bearish, and I expect lower prices and a break of the November lows at some point this year, but it is hard to tell when that will happen. Oscillators and indicators are still completely neutral and although I would look to get short at some point, I would much rather do it when the market is overbought in the short-term to setup a decent risk/reward. I don't think we have that right now - I think there is as much chance of getting whipsawed out of short positions here as there is making gains on them - probably more of a chance actually. I want good odds, not questionable odds. But that's just me.

I am going to try and get back into a normal schedule by this weekend with maybe a video if I have more setups. I can't deny that not thinking about this market much this week has been nice - sometimes you need to do that. I am hopeful after this jobs number that we get some movement. I still don't see a ton of setups - here are the shorts I am watching that could work out but only if the market starts falling - STT, USB, INT, TSCO, UNP, NTES, UAUA, LEAP, WFC, BBBY, SVR, LPHI, RRGB, CHA, HAS, ROG, QSII, SYNT. If we get more overbought, I might start getting ready to make some moves on a few of these. Good luck Thursday.


Charlie G. said...

Well, at least the Steelers won! I wonder if the financials will tumble after the gov't news come out and these rallies are fueled on anticipating that news? I can't remember what happened with TARP round 1.

Boomer Angst said...

I haven't traded at all this week, either. Can't find anything with a decent risk-reward ratio. At least I'm getting a lot of writing done this week.

Anonymous said...

Note that the market cap of Citigroup (C) is roughly $19 billion and Bank of America (BAC) is roughly $27 billion. The treasury is guaranteeing $400 billion of debt on companies that would be worthless without those guarantees. Does this make sense?

Mac said...

Charlie - I think it could be a "sell the news" reaction but really, who knows? I think TARP 1 was around September of last year and the days around it were absolutely crazy.

Anonymous - you seem to be assuming anything the government does makes sense. That's where your premise is a bit wrong. I don't know that there has been any move that has made any sense through this whole thing, and all of the intervention has only guaranteed that this process will take much longer, probably be much harder, and will affect not only us but my children and grandchildren even more.