Wednesday, February 4, 2009

Still No Tradeable Edge From What I See

As the title states, I still see no edge out there in this market. My oscillators and indicators remain stuck in neutral mode. The indices are still stuck in a range and are going nowhere fast, yesterday's "rally" not withstanding. All of the short setups I had at the beginning of last week have not broken down the way they should have. Meanwhile, I continue to see very few candidates on the long side that excite me (ANSW, GERN, GRS, NTCT, NFLX, and gold is it). Until we get more candidates that show that leadership is ready to emerge to lead this market higher, why do anything?

I wish I could say something different - I wish we had a trend to trade but I don't think we do. I really believe we are in a holding pattern until all of these games being played in Washington come to a conclusion and traders have some understanding of what is going to be done next. Until that happens, I plan on staying on the sidelines and not stressing myself out instead of fighting this market, feeling like a mouse on a wheel, trying my hardest but going absolutely nowhere because of things I can't control. Good luck out there. Remember that patience is a virtue as a trader. I think it is necessary right now.


Anonymous said...

Make sense Mac, maybe after job number come out and stimulus bill pass, we will see the real direction. That time you can return from your hibernation.

hayfro said...


If I may make a suggestion. Yes the markets are very tricky right now sending many mixed messeges. I'm sitting out as well for the most part but there are markets out there that are trending nicely. Bonds seem to have topped and you could play that TBT or short TLT. Oil is a dog and is trending nicely down (USO). Gold (GLD/GDX) is at a crossroads, but if it displays more strength, could be a big mover to the upside.

What I'm saying, is stay out of stocks long/short in the overall indexes and play specific sectors that do have a nice trend.

Something to consider if you're starting to get the trading itch.


Mac said...

Anonymous - I would agree on the news you mentioned - maybe things will start moving when those things are resolved.

Jeff - I really prefer stocks and the indices in general but I will say that I have been watching gold - for some technical reasons but probably more for all this money that is being printed right now. At some point, I have to think the deflation turns to inflation, but I know it doesn't have to happen that way.