Wednesday, February 18, 2009

State of the Market - 2/18/09

A very boring and slow day today on Wall Street, so slow in fact that it really doesn't deserve to be written about heavily. The markets fell early on, bounced back slightly, but basically just moved sideways for the rest of the session. Volume was light as well.

Today is a perfect example of why this market has been so tough. We can never seem to get any follow-through where we have two really great days back to back or two really bad days back to back. Today's action reminds me of last Wednesday - we had a huge down day on Tuesday with only a slight bounce-back the following day. The problem with that comparison is that Thursday was the government-led reversal which I am sure skewered many shorts out there. Bottom line is that it is still tough out there to trade for more than a few hours with the lack of consistent direction in this market.

My thoughts from last night remain the same - I am hesitant to short here due to fairly strong oversold conditions, although I know we could continue lower without bouncing. The safer play odds-wise seems to be to wait for a little bounce up to the 802-820 area on the S&P and then go short, perhaps with the market a little overbought rather than a little oversold. That's just my opinion. 820 is right where the short-term 9 day moving average is sitting at and that area would also come close to the former trendline we broke yesterday. We have a bit more room to the downside on the oscillators but I lean to a little bounce soon before we head lower.

We'll see what tomorrow brings - we have options expiration on Friday and Thursday before those day can be quite volatile as well. This remains a market that absolutely nothing it does surprises me. Good luck.

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