Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Very Weak Follow-Through Day - Lack of Leadership Continues

Today was technically a follow-through day according to IBD but just like almost all of the FTDs of the past year, I am thoroughly unimpressed. As I normally do on these FTDs, I checked out IBD's "stocks on the move" today and there were a total of five stocks listed that was up on 100% or higher than normal volume (RKT, GPRO, MTXX, NVO, GMCR). If that's the best this market can do, again, this "rally" is in trouble. If you want more evidence of the lack of leadership in this "rally", the IBD 100 was up 1.2% today. When you see that big of a divergence (the major indices were up over 3%) there is something wrong. On a sound FTD, you would see the IBD 100 up 4-5% when the indices are up so much.

Here are the indices - just wanted to show why I am not chasing any longs here and am still stalking the short side and waiting for the right time to pounce. Even if I wanted to buy, I can't find anything to even consider.

XLF
S&P 500
Nasdaq
Charts from Telechart2007, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

I did lose some of the nice bear flags from my list today on this move higher but I am seeing some potential head and shoulders patterns setting up, just like the indices. Those are potential patterns, so it would take a drop to build the right shoulders on these, but I think that is a possibility.

All in all, I don't know if I will be making any moves tomorrow or not because as I said earlier today, they might try to paint this tape into the new month, but I will be looking for the right time to get short. Hopefully, my read is correct here. Take care and good luck tomorrow.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Why do not think the major indexes are forming big reverse head and shoulder patterns? They look like to me.

Mac said...

I have seen that and see it as a possibility but volume has to come in big for the last shoulder to form on that pattern. It's possible - I just think it is unlikely.

Anonymous said...

Thanks, Mac. However, look at $NDX, NASDAQ daily charts, a gap after doji at low STO most of time is extremely bullish. Does this increase the chance for reverse head and shoulder?

Mac said...

To be honest, I have no clue. I just keep asking myself, after the shorts are done covering, what exactly is going to push this market higher? Again, it goes back to leadership. Where is it? Do you really think these financials are being bought down here for good reasons, or do you think it is a bunch of people covering shorts and taking them for day trades. Hopefully I am wrong and we get a huge rally, but I just doubt it.

Anonymous said...

Well, You should not look for reasons, just look at the price, volume, and chart patterns. Very best wishes. I enjoyed your blog.

Charlie G. said...

Hard to make a sense of the market right now. Looks like a small bounce up this AM after the gap down, wonder if it's an uptick to get short on? I have no idea.

I usually root for the Steelers but the Cards are a fun team and you have to like an underdog. Should be a good game.

clint said...

Very well said. It has been a great analysis at all. I can say that your graph is a resourceful,nice,clear,direct to the point.That`s what the reader`s and the traders wanted to see in every blog. You catch my attention.

clint said...

I noticed that if their would be a big reverse head their is a change in the pattern plans, I guess it's really important to avoid a wrong move on this part. But is it natural to experience a problem like this. Well I like the blog, usually the graphs and how it is show. Good day.