Thursday, December 4, 2008

Market Looks Poised to Make A Big Move - Wish I Knew Which Way It Was Going to Be

First, I did sell my SKF after-hours at $139.99 for a 2.5% gain (posted this on Twitter). After looking at the indices, I just think there is too much uncertainty in the charts to make any big bets before the employment number tomorrow. I am looking for more selling, but I know that it is definitely not a given, especially if for some reason the number isn't as bad as people expect. And it may not even be the number that matters - it's the reaction to the number that matters, and I have no clue how this market will respond. It has taken most bad news fairly well recently.

Here are the indices. You can see them setting up in triangular patterns right now and that's why I think we could be poised for a big move one way or the other. I just don't have a good feeling as to which way that move will be. I plan on watching the levels I posted on these charts below and then going from there. I may not do anything. I know a false breakout or breakdown is certainly a possibility as well, which would frustrate the heck out of me. To be honest, Monday allowed me to get back closer to my highs for the year (up around 85% right now in my main account) and after losing some of the gains throughout November(which was definitely not fun), I really don't know if I want to risk losing those gains again. We'll see how tomorrow plays out - maybe I will take some trades but I may just take a break and watch the action as an impartial observer.

S&P 500
Nasdaq
All Charts from Telechart2007, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

If you're trading or have positions on, best of luck tomorrow. I'm pretty sure it should be an intense and exciting day.

1 comment:

szaman said...

Mac, buying a breakout in this market is a sucker game.