Monday, November 24, 2008

I'm Remaining Patient Here and Not Chasing Anything

This is it in terms of nice charts I see right now. Four nice charts isn't going to do it in terms of getting a nice rally going. If I saw more, I would be more optimistic right now. As it is, I am expecting a pullback soon, perhaps more, although I am aware that doesn't have to happen.

OPTR, COGT, ASEI, TSYS
Chart from Telechart 2007, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

I noticed that some of the inverse ETFs bounced off (in some cases they closes right at) some possible trendlines today. I don't know if that means anything but if we gap up tomorrow I may start to look at these again. Perhaps that's stupid as I realize this market could continue higher but I just have my doubts right now.

SKF, SDS
SMN, SRS
Chart from Telechart 2007, Courtesy of Worden Brothers, Inc.

I am hesitant here and plan on passing on taking any longs at this point. As I said earlier, the play for the last few months have been sell the rips and buy the dips and hope you get lucky with your timing. Perhaps this time it will be different. Perhaps this is the start of the big, tradeable rally that I along with likely every other trader in the world has been waiting for. I hope it is. I think that would be great. One of these rally attempts has to stick, right?

Luckily, I don't have to guess whether it will be the "one" or now. I can just step back and wait to see what the market does. I can let it prove itself to me a bit more. If this is the start of something special, I am not going to miss that much over the duration of the rally. I like the way the Worden Report put it tonight, commenting on the bearish lower volume today:

"If the market can show doubt and trepidation--so can you. Back off until you can determine whether this is just a very short-term condition, or whether it is warning of a severe continuation of the bear trend--something that could take a real hunk out of the market."

I think waiting a bit longer on the long side and being patient will probably turn out to be wise here. We have GDP numbers tomorrow I believe so perhaps that will drive trading. I'm sure it will be an interesting session as always. Good luck.

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