Friday, October 24, 2008

State of the Market - 10/24/08

It's the weekend, so the commentary is going to be short tonight. I think there are two words that can best describe this market - crap shoot (unless that is really one word and I misspelled it.) I mean, seriously, was there anything yesterday to tip off that we would be looking at a limit down open? I didn't see anything at all. Then, when everyone is expecting a monumental collapse, the market comes out and basically just does what it has been doing the past few weeks - chopped around in a 400-600 point range intraday and besides that, not doing too much. Yes, we finished off the lows, but we have done that many times in the past few weeks. Bottom-line is that I don't think today does anything to help show us where we are headed over the next few weeks.

Obviously today wasn't a crash. I was kind of hoping it would be, just because perhaps that is what we really need to put in a meaningful bottom or at least set up for a rally that would last more than two days. This month has been a slow-motion crash, and maybe it will just end with a quiet reversal that will stick. Who really knows? Again, right now it is a total crap shoot and there is no reason to trade it. Can anyone out there honestly say they know what Monday will bring us? Technicals still don't seem to matter, and fundamentals certainly don't matter right now. Unpredictable news events seem to be the key driving force in trading, but even then, you get weird reactions to news, so who knows? Seriously, if you trading right now, you probably would be better off going directly to Las Vegas or playing online poker.

There is no way to play this market. You can't go short and you can't go long. There is just nothing to do right now, nothing productive at least. I am hopeful we do at some point get some movement up, and I am pretty sure that will eventually happen, but for the moment, this market is just schizophrenic and completely random. It is best to stay away.

Have a good weekend - as usual, I think we all deserve it. At the risk of stating the obvious, let me say that this market sucks. Take care.


Anonymous said...

I think it will be choppy action until there's a bounce or a wash-out, and looking at the charts a wash-out seems much more likely right now. We're squeezing into triangles and I think in the coming week we'll see a breakout, hoping for some clarity and momentum after that.

Mac said...

Those triangles are starting to look like descending ones which normally are bearish, so we shall see. Anything is possible right now, which is why I am back on the sideline. This market isn't worth spending much energy on right now.