Friday, September 26, 2008

State of the Market - 9/26/08

Since the weekend is here and the market continues to be held hostage by news events, I don't think there is any reason to analyze things right now. I can sum up the events this way. If you have large positions at the end of today, you are one of three things.

1) A great trader that has big cushions in those positions that affords him the risk of letting those positions ride a bit, regardless of if they are short or long positions.

2) A gambler who likes betting on the outcome of a political event. Not only on the outcome, but also the market's reaction to the outcome. There is nothing wrong with that if it is what you are comfortable with - it's just not my cup of tea.

3) An undisciplined trader. Please don't take that the wrong way - I am not trying to offend anyone. But if you think it is worth holding positions right now going into this news-driven weekend when there is no edge out there for shorts or longs, then I think that's what you are. I hope things work out for you. Sometimes though you have to know to sit things out and have the discipline to do so.

I am in cash and my gut feeling is that I will continue to remain in cash for the near future. That is what is presented to us right now and there isn't much we can do about it. It certainly doesn't pay to try and fight it.

I am glad the weekend is here. Have fun, try to get away from things, and we'll see what Monday brings. Take care.


bmbull said...

Well said.

Anonymous said...

I couldnt agree more. Felt the urge to get some longs before the close but knew it was wiser not to.


Anonymous said...

Hi, you forget reason number 4: An investor with a very long time horizon. :p