Thursday, September 11, 2008

Hard to Tell Right Now Where This Market Wants to Go

After going through my scans, I am guessing I may not be doing much trading tomorrow to wrap up the week. My long scans continue to be jokes for the most part. The high growth, lower float, IBD-type stocks that I like to go long with just are not out there right now. Now, if you want to play a stock like GM, which will likely declare bankruptcy soon unless our friendly government comes to the rescue once again, be my guest. I just can't do that. There are a few stocks that have stayed on my watchlist consistently - CLNE, TACT, ICAD - but that's about it. Here are a few others that could work as a possible swing trade but none of these are great.

ATRO - forming flag pattern right underneath the 200 day moving average, and a breakout could let this stock run a little.

RJET - forming a cup pattern but the volume is all wrong on this stock.

UA - may run if it gets over the 200 day moving average, but today was a great day to do so and it did nothing.

SOL - if you want a possible bounce play, it looks like this has strong support at $12.

On the short side, I was surprised that some of the commodities still haven't bounced as strongly as I thought they would. If you check out the following list, ( MON, ANR, HK, CRZO, GHM, ACI, PVA, ARD, CLR, SWN, MOS, CLF, CMP, WLL, CF) you can see that many seem to be forming possible bear flag patterns. I would not short them right at this moment - I think that is too risky - but would consider these if they continue to just move slightly higher on much lower volume. The volume on these stocks the past two days is what really stands out for me - it has been quite low compared to recent selling volume.

I don't see a ton of other great setups. Some like ENER and VISN that I posted last night could work in another day or so if they continue to bounce slightly higher on weaker volume. Others I am watching include WGOV, FCFS, ONNN, MR, GTLS, WAB, RIMM, IPHS, and RBCAA.

There is a reason I didn't put up any charts tonight - I didn't see a whole lot going on that I thought was worth pointing out visually. After today, I honestly do not have a clue as to where we head tomorrow - I don't have a feeling one way or another. I would guess we bounce a bit higher because that makes the least amount of sense, but that is simply a guess. How many times can this market look terrible in the morning and then suddenly right itself out of nowhere? It seems to have happened quite a bit recently, and since it never amounts to anything, I think there will be a time soon when the market won't be able to save itself from the morning selloff, and we really do move much lower. It is just a matter of finding when that is.

Either way, I don't think I will be doing much unless some of these charts turn into very nice setups in a hurry. However, even nice setups are difficult to trade right now, so we'll see. I think we are back to careful mode, at least for the time being. Good luck tomorrow. I don't know about you, but I can't wait for the weekend to get here.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I agree with you. This market is not worth trading in unless we get some signal. I was ready to dive into my shorts in the morning but good thing I didn't end up doing anything. I think I will have to call the FED if i lose any money on my shorts since they will save everyone in need. I will add on to my SKF and DXD if this silly rally continues.

Rik

Mac said...

I thought we had that signal last Thursday but we haven't gone much of anywhere since then. I also forgot that we have the Fed coming up next Tuesday, and as if there haven't already been enough handout for the banks and rich guys, now there is talk of another rate cut coming up. That's going to make early next week tough as well.

I am thinking about gold a little right here.

hayfro said...

I've bought some initial gold positions this week. Sort of dipping my tools in the proverbial water as I've not had much luck trading gold in the past but maybe it's because I should think of it more as an investment this time. Thanks for the reminder about the fed meeting.

Jeff (Zentrader)