Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Trend is Definitely Down, But We Could Still Bounce a Little

Just a Few Points Tonight:
  • I sold out of QID after hours at $40.58 for a 3.7% gain. It's not a big gain, but I have a lot of stuff going on the next three days and I don't know how much I will be able to be at my computer, so cash isn't a bad option for me right now.
  • IBD did put the "rally" as under pressure tonight, which is not surprising. They have mentioned for a while that this rally was not acting well, and that there were not many stocks setting up nicely.
  • I am just posting my watchlist tonight. The only thing that really interests me on the long side is PDO and ROYL as oil lottery plays if it rallies. Some of the others have pulled back and rested nicely, but there are just are too many question marks with the market for my tastes.
  • Most of the shorts I have posted have already started breaking down, so you would be chasing here. If we continue to fall straight down, then shorting here would work. If we bounce a little before heading lower, then you could get some quick losses.
  • We could go either way here for the rest of the week - we are no longer overbought, so the selling could subside for a few days. I don't have a good feeling either way, which is one of the reasons I will likely be sitting out.
Longs I am Watching

Shorts I am Watching

My wife and I have a sonogram tomorrow morning to find out if child #2 is a boy or a girl, so I will not be around the computer or thinking about the market tomorrow morning. Thursday and Friday, I have meetings that will keep me away from the computer for much of the day as well. No big deal - with the low volume and summer trading conditions, I have no problem with stepping away for a few days. I am hoping for a little rally that I could short into next week, but we'll have to see if that happens. I definitely think the trend is lower now. I will try to post though the next few nights about what I see happening. Take care and good luck.

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Anonymous said...

I don't think the market is as neutral as you indicate. IMHO, we're on the verge of a new downtrend.

The major indices ($SPX, $COMPQ and $INDU) are all within a hairsbreadth of a downturn signal. So is the VIX and the put/call is calling a downtrend signal as well.

Most of the foreign indices are showing a definite downtrend signal. Preredictions are silly, but if I were feeling silly, I'd guess that tomorrow is likely to confirm the downtrend. (But, will keep you posted.)

Terry Steichen

Mac said...

You may well be right. My point and thinking is that the one thing this market has consistently done for the past month or so is no follow-through on anything. With all of the low volume, I just think we could still bounce around here before heading lower in a more powerful manner.