Monday, June 2, 2008

State of the Market - 6/2/08

To start off, I was away from my computer so the commentary will be short today because I really don't what happened intraday. When I did get to my computer, I saw the indexes down a very large amount, but most of the morning was where the selling took place, and the afternoon brought stocks off their lows and caused the indexes to finish in the middle of their intraday range. Volume was lower across the board. From what I can tell, the losses were mainly due to a reversal in oil prices and some credit ratings changes for major financial firms were the catalyst for the selling.

Technically, it is hard to make out what today means. The S&P still looks like it is forming a head and shoulders top here, but it once again got support at its 50 day moving average. The Dow broke down out of its bear flag pattern early on and looked like it was going to break last week's lows, but finished above those. The Nasdaq also looked like it was clearly breaking down from last week's bounce early on, but the close took it well off its lows, as well. I honestly don't know what to expect tomorrow based on today's action. Perhaps after doing my scans, I will get a better idea if today was the start of a real breakdown, with just some short covering late, or simply a down day that was bought by dip buyers expecting a move higher in the near future.

I hate days like this when I am out because when I get back, it feels like my head is spinning trying to catch up with the action. In terms of my trading, I tightened stops on DUG since it looked like oil was headed lower this morning, but I was stopped out at $28.33. I believe I ended up with a 7% gain overall but I have to check for sure. I am still in CNQ, although it looked like this morning it was ready to break to new lows. I will tighten my stop on that as well. QID worked out well, at least it appears it did until midday. We'll see what happens - I will likely move my stop to breakeven. In what was perhaps a hurried and poor move, I took a short position in BOOM at $41.63 and restarted a short position in ISRG at $286.06 in the afternoon during one of the few moments I was able to check out the action and had access to a computer. They closed off their lows, but I think it really depends on the overall market as to where they will head. If today's selling proves meaningful, I do think these will be two excellent short candidates. If the market shrugs off today's selling, then I will be out of these with small losses.

I don't have much more to say right now because I have to go through my scans to tell really what happened today and what to expect next. There is a hockey game on tonight, but I will likely be back later with some thoughts on where the market may head from here. Sorry, but that's all I got right now.

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